Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, will see a larger crop in the 2023-2024 season, which runs from July to June, but the increase will be modest and far from the record output some analysts had expected, the data firm said. Taka Insights commodity store.
The company, which produces daily crop prediction models using remote sensing and weather station data, projected Brazil’s Arabica coffee production for the 2023-2024 period at 40.68 million 60-kilogram bags, a small increase over volume. of the 2022-2023 cycle, which is forecast at 38.48 million bags.
“This may seem surprising to some, who anticipated a much larger recovery due to a few months of well above average rainfall, but the NDVI clearly shows the extreme moisture deficit at the beginning of the vegetative growth cycle,” the company said.
NDVI stands for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a way of measuring the green vegetation of shrubs that is considered efficient for predicting production.
Soft commodities analyst Judith Ganes, co-founder of coffee program Taka Insights, said the data collection now covers about 75% of the arabica area in Brazil, with daily monitoring.
He added that the arabica bushes in Brazil are still recovering from a harsh drought and frost in 2021, so they cannot produce a huge crop like the record production seen in the 2020-2021 cycle.
Arabica coffee accounts for about two-thirds of Brazil’s total production, with the rest coming from robusta coffee trees.
Taka Insights is still working on mapping the share of robusta in Brazilian coffee production.