Private investment at the end of this 2022 would amount to US$50,271 million, according to the latest estimates from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
However, despite the fact that this figure would mean a variation of 0% compared to 2021, the monetary entity highlighted that this performance would be 14.7% above 2019.
In this regard, the president of the BCRP, Julio Velardeexplained that, although there would be zero growth, this “is not a bad figure” since it exceeds pre-pandemic levels by almost 15%, and could even be considered a growth of 5% per year from 2019.
“Last year, the investment was quite high and grew to 37.4%, because part of the investment postponed from 2020 was made in 2021. So, maintaining the level of 2021 is not a bad result in general, even if it grows 0%”, the banker stated in the Congressional Economy Commission.
In detail, the entity forecasts that non-mining investment would reach US$44,771 million (0.5%). Meanwhile, mining investment would drop to US$5.5 billion (-3.7%), due to the persistence of social conflicts and less favorable terms of trade, according to the BCRP inflation report.
Investments for 2023
What the Central Reserve Bank expects for private investment is to grow 1.8% next year, reaching US$53,332 million. However, this forecast is less than the 2% that was three months ago.
According to the BCRP, this expansion is explained by a more gradual recovery of business confidence and by the projected contraction of the terms of trade, which would have a negative impact on the decisions of new investment projects, mainly in the mining sector.
By 2023, mining investment would reach US$4.8 billion, representing a drop of -16.2%. This is because large projects, such as Quellaveco and Toromocho, will complete their disbursements this year.
However, the issuing entity expects that these effects will be partially offset by the measures aimed at facilitating, strengthening and unblocking private investment proposed by the Impulso Perú plan of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (FEM).
In this way, it is expected that non-mining investment for 2023 will reach US$48,532 million, which means a growth of 4%.