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France’s wheat exports in 2022-2023 would reach the highest level in the last three years

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French soft wheat exports outside the European Union (EU) are set to reach a three-year high in 2022-2023 after a good start to the season, agricultural office FranceAgriMer said.

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In early projections for the season that began this month, the bureau forecast shipments of 10.3 million tonnes, 17% above an estimate of 8.8 million tonnes for 2021-2022 and the highest figure since 2019-2020.

EU wheat exporting countries have seen strong demand early in the season as importers look for alternatives to war-interrupted Ukrainian supplies and drought increases Morocco’s import need.

Competitive prices, supported by a drop in the euro to virtual parity with the dollar, boost export prospects, although uncertainty remained over Chinese demand and how much Russia would export, said Marc Zribi, head of the grains subsidiary. from FranceAgriMer.

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Russia is expected to reap a bumper crop, but its export prospects have been clouded by Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine would not necessarily have a major impact on the wheat trade this season, even if a diplomatic deal is reached to reopen its seaports, given the time needed to restore infrastructure, Zribi added.

For 2021-2022, FranceAgriMer lowered its extra-EU export estimate from 9.1m tonnes set in June, cutting the figure for the fourth month in a row. The bureau has said war-related record prices curbed demand at the end of last season.

As for soft wheat exports within the EU, the bureau projected that France would ship 7 million tonnes in 2022-2023, down 12% from an unchanged estimate of 8 million for 2021-2022.

Common wheat stocks are forecast to decline by nearly 30% to 2.3 million tonnes, against an estimate of 3.3 million for 2021-2022.

Source: Gestion

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