Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu risks losing power in upcoming legislative elections on October 27, 2026, according to Middle East expert Frédéric Encel.
The election will determine the 120 seats of the Knesset, Israel's unicameral parliament, and dictate the formation of the country's next governing coalition.
Netanyahu has served nearly 20 cumulative years as Prime Minister. However, three weeks before the vote, his political future is in severe jeopardy as mounting opposition threatens his coalition.
Coalition obstacles for Likud
Encel, a doctor of geopolitics and professor at Paris 8 University, told La Dépêche du Midi journalist Vanessa Abadie that Netanyahu's Likud party could still place first in the election. Even so, he said arriving in first place would not be enough for Netanyahu to remain Prime Minister.
Israel operates under a system of full proportional representation. Since the establishment of the state in 1948, no single party has ever won an outright majority to govern alone, requiring leaders to build coalitions of at least three parties.
If Likud secures the most votes, the President of Israel would typically task Netanyahu with forming a government. Encel noted that almost no parties across the political spectrum on the left or the right are willing to enter a coalition with him, leaving Netanyahu unable to assemble a parliamentary majority.
The drag of October 7
A majority of Israeli voters blame Netanyahu for failing to anticipate the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people. Encel highlighted that voters are particularly angry that the Prime Minister has refused to accept personal responsibility for the security failure.
Netanyahu has resisted calls to resign and has refused to establish an official commission of inquiry into the attacks. Encel pointed out that official commissions were formed after previous crises, including the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Lebanon War, and the 2007 conflict.
Following those previous inquiries, three of Netanyahu's predecessors ultimately resigned from office. Because Netanyahu has neither resigned nor allowed an official inquiry, Encel described his handling of the October 7 attacks as his primary political drag.
Gadi Eisenkot positioned for power
Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, a former Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, currently holds the best prospect of becoming Prime Minister. Under Israeli electoral procedure, if the head of the largest party fails to form a coalition within the legal timeframe, the president can reassign the mandate to the leader of the second-placed party.
Encel explained that Eisenkot would likely succeed in forming a majority where Netanyahu would fail. Eisenkot would look to build a centrist coalition combining centre-left parties, such as Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and potentially Yair Golan's movement, alongside right-wing parties supported by Israel's predominantly conservative electorate.
Crucially, an Eisenkot-led coalition would exclude the radical far-right factions that currently form Netanyahu's ruling government. Encel added that if moderate Palestinian leadership were to emerge concurrently with backing from regional Arab nations, including Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco, the political shift could revive hopes for peace in Gaza.
End of a political era
Netanyahu's defeat would mark a major turning point in modern Israeli history. Throughout his tenure, Netanyahu has reshaped the nation's political landscape, specifically by choosing to govern alongside far-right allies despite having mathematical options to form centrist coalitions.
Encel noted that while previous Israeli administrations, including those led by the Labor Party, maintained strong militarist policies, Netanyahu's specific decision to partner with radical right-wing groups has left a lasting impact on Israeli democracy. His departure from office would open an entirely new political chapter for the country.
Security failures and ongoing trauma
The election campaign takes place amidst ongoing public debate surrounding the security failures of October 7, 2023. Reports indicate that Netanyahu received multiple advance warnings regarding an imminent attack, including alerts from Egyptian intelligence officials and representatives from the United Arab Emirates.
The broader conflict continues to spark domestic and international controversy. A recent documentary titled Naza, which details Israeli military strikes in Gaza, sparked intense debate that has left its filmmakers unable to return to Israel.
The ongoing human toll of the conflict remains severe across the region. Israeli authorities recently announced the death of Hamas's top military commander, described as a key architect of the October 7 attacks, while an October 7 survivor died by suicide at the grave of his partner killed in the initial assault, highlighting the lasting trauma affecting both Israelis and Palestinians three years after the conflict began.
