Spain faces potential natural gas supply problems next winter when the European Union’s ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) takes effect on 1 January, according to a study by KPMG.
The report, which examines the implications of the Russian gas ban for European supply security and Spain specifically, concludes that Spain is in a stronger position than most EU member states but is not immune to disruption.
KPMG said Spain benefits from high regasification capacity, diversified supply sources and a direct pipeline connection to Algeria, all of which strengthen the resilience of the national gas system. However, the study warns that this advantage must be viewed with caution because Spain relies heavily on LNG, exposing it to global market volatility and the risk of shipments being diverted to more profitable destinations.
The report identifies several factors combining to create an unusually difficult market environment. These include ongoing restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reduced export availability from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, growing competition with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes, and European storage levels that are lower than at any point in the past 15 years.
According to data from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators cited in the report, Russian gas contracts still active during the transition period represent between 45 and 55 billion cubic metres per year, equivalent to 11 to 14 percent of Europe’s annual gas demand.
KPMG also noted that European storage entering the 2026-2027 winter is below levels recorded in recent years, reducing the buffer against supply interruptions or periods of high demand.
