Russia could launch a new offensive against northern Ukraine targeting the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions by February next year if Moscow carries out a new wave of mobilization this year, according to a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official.
Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that Russian forces will aim to show military progress on active front-line sectors before upcoming elections. He noted that any broader mobilization drive would likely follow those elections.
Skibitsky recalled that after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Moscow announced a partial mobilization in the second half of October that year. Combat-ready units from that draft only reached the front lines in December 2022 and January 2023.
If Russian authorities launch another mobilization wave this year, Skibitsky said Moscow could build a powerful strike force near the border by early next year. He noted that Russian commanders could attempt an operation in February, citing Russian President Vladimir Putin's known preference for symbolic dates.
Current northern readiness and troop levels
However, the intelligence chief emphasized that any schedule will depend on whether mobilization occurs and how many troops are called up. He stated that while a northern offensive remains theoretically possible this year, there are currently no operational indicators or troop concentrations on the ground showing that Russian forces are prepared for such an attack.
Peace prospects and targeted infrastructure
Skibitsky also ruled out any near-term end to the fighting, noting there are no signs on the battlefield that Russia is willing to cease fire or engage in genuine negotiations. He said no peace agreement or formal deal will be signed before the end of this year.
Instead, military intelligence expects Russian strikes to continue targeting Ukraine's defense industry, military facilities, energy networks, logistics infrastructure and gas stations. He warned that power grids, municipal heating systems and water supplies all remain under direct threat.
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, known as GUR, is the defense ministry agency responsible for monitoring Russian military operations. Kyiv, the nation's capital, and Chernihiv, a strategic northern region near the border, were major targets during the initial Russian advance in February 2022 before Ukrainian forces drove enemy troops back.
