Peruvian households will modify their shopping habits rather than cut consumption during El Niño, according to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator.
Findings from the firm's study show that 42.9 percent of households would look to stock up on products if the weather phenomenon affects their area, while 38 percent would switch to lower-priced brands. Additionally, 28.2 percent of respondents said they would shop closer to home, and only 7.8 percent stated they would make no changes to their buying habits.
Patricia Buchhammer, advanced analytics manager at Worldpanel by Numerator, told Peruvian financial news outlet Gestión that households are approaching this scenario in a stronger financial position than during the previous El Niño event in 2023. She explained that families are making smarter purchases and planning ahead to maximize value across different retail channels.
El Niño is a periodic climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which frequently causes heavy rainfall, flooding, and agricultural disruption along the western coast of South America. Peru experienced significant infrastructure damage, supply chain bottlenecks, and localized product shortages during previous occurrences of the phenomenon.
Improved household financial stability
The study categorized Peruvian households into three financial groups based on how they perceive their economic situation. Households describing themselves as comfortable rose from 15 percent in 2023 to 24 percent in 2026.
Over the same timeframe, households feeling financially tight decreased from 37 percent to 30 percent. Meanwhile, households categorized as budget managers shifted slightly from 49 percent in 2023 to 46 percent in 2026.
Buchhammer noted that broader economic stability, stabilized inflation rates, and improvements in formal employment over recent years have enabled households to prepare better. She emphasized that stocking up does not mean panic hoarding at stores, but rather securing essential product formats at home to maintain standard consumption levels.
This consumer planning builds on existing shopping behaviors. Worldpanel reported that Peruvian households currently visit around nine different retail formats, ranging from traditional bodegas and supermarkets to convenience stores and discounters, seeking distinct combinations of price, promotions, and value at each location.
Regional differences across Peru
Shopping intentions vary significantly across different geographic regions of Peru. The desire to stock up is higher outside the capital city of Lima, reaching 53.5 percent in central regions, 51.2 percent in eastern regions, and 48.4 percent in northern regions, compared to 40.4 percent in Lima.
Buchhammer explained that residents in provincial regions who previously experienced supply chain disruptions during past El Niño events are more aware that goods may not reach local stores normally. Consequently, these consumers take extra precautions to keep necessary products at home.
The preference for shopping near home also shows regional contrasts. While 28.2 percent of households nationwide plan to rely on nearby stores, that figure rises to 37.3 percent in eastern Peru and 33.1 percent in both central and northern regions.
Historical data from 2023 reinforces these patterns. Comparing channel performance between 2022 and 2023, Worldpanel found that value focused retail formats, including discounters, cash and carry stores, wholesalers, and neighborhood proximity channels, drove the highest market growth.
Buchhammer noted that discount stores are likely to remain popular due to low prices, while traditional bodegas offer suitable package sizes and convenience stores provide quick access to specific product categories.
Socioeconomic responses and brand pressure
Consumer strategies also split along socioeconomic lines. High-income households in levels A and B display a stronger inclination to stock up while taking advantage of bulk formats and promotional deals.
Low-income households in levels D and E are more likely to switch to economic brands. Middle-income households in level C combine both approaches, prioritizing stocking up while placing greater emphasis on finding lower-priced alternatives than high-income groups.
Overall package size preferences reflect these financial balancing acts. The study found that 18.3 percent of households intend to purchase large formats or bulk sizes to save money, whereas 9.2 percent plan to choose smaller sizes to manage immediate cash outlay.
Although 38 percent of consumers express willingness to switch to lower-priced options, Worldpanel emphasized that households are not abandoning mainstream or premium brands blindly. Buchhammer noted that consumers evaluate the price to quality ratio and select brands that reliably deliver promised benefits over unfamiliar budget options.
To retain customers under tighter budgets, brands must demonstrate clear value. The study indicated that 19 percent of households intend to seek out promotions and discounts on premium brands rather than switching away.
Category trends and retail execution
Essential categories such as cooking staples, dairy products, cooking oil, and basic cleaning supplies account for 54 percent to 55 percent of household purchase occasions in Peru.
However, secondary categories including personal care, health, wellness, and indulgence items have become routine parts of daily household life. Buchhammer pointed out that consumers are unlikely to abandon these categories entirely during El Niño.
For personal care, health, and wellness products, shoppers are more inclined to change package sizes rather than switch brands. For indulgence items, families may purchase larger presentation sizes to secure a lower unit cost while keeping the items in their routine.
Worldpanel recommended that manufacturers and retailers focus on shelf availability and offering appropriate package sizes rather than launching new product lines. Buchhammer stressed that ensuring existing products remain accessible on store shelves during El Niño months is vital.
Following the initial impact of the 2023 El Niño event, Worldpanel observed a recovery in consumer spending and volume, particularly in provincial areas and neighborhood retail channels. Buchhammer concluded that retail strategy must focus on supporting evolving consumer purchasing patterns as El Niño unfolds.
Study methodology
The survey, titled Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon on Peruvian Household Consumption, was conducted by Worldpanel by Numerator between July 6 and July 19, 2026, sampling 1,238 Peruvian households nationwide. The study carries a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
