Marine Le Pen maintains a commanding lead in voter intentions for the first round of France's 2027 presidential election, according to a new Elabe survey published on Saturday for news broadcaster BFMTV and newspaper La Tribune Dimanche.
The Rassemblement National candidate holds between 34 percent and 35.5 percent of first-round preferences across various candidate matchups tested in the study, keeping her far ahead of all potential rivals.
In contrast, veteran left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon has seen his momentum fade. Unlike two other polls published this week, the Elabe survey shows the leader of the left-wing La France Insoumise movement in a weaker position to reach the decisive second-round runoff.
When former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe stands as the sole candidate representing the central political bloc, Mélenchon is credited with 14 percent of voting intentions, down two percentage points compared to July. Philippe garners 17 percent, up 0.5 points, putting the former prime minister in position to advance to the final runoff alongside Le Pen.
Shift in Left-Wing and Centrist Matchups
Raphaël Glucksmann, who recently declared his candidacy through a primary organized alongside the Socialist Party, holds fourth place with 11.5 percent of intentions, up one point, when Philippe represents the central bloc. However, when former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal represents the central bloc instead, Glucksmann gains three points to reach 14 percent.
In that configuration with Attal, the social-democratic candidate ties with Mélenchon for a place in the second round, while Attal falls to fourth place at 12 percent, down 1.5 percentage points.
The survey also tested other candidates for the social-democratic left. If former French President François Hollande stands instead of Glucksmann, he receives 7.5 percent to 8 percent of the vote, while Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure receives 3.5 percent. Elabe reported that both of those alternative configurations would benefit Philippe.
Right-Wing and Minority Candidates
Further down the field, Bruno Retailleau, president of the conservative party Les Républicains, is credited with between 6 percent and 9.5 percent of voter intentions, depending on the candidate combination tested.
Éric Zemmour, leader of the far-right Reconquête party, garners approximately 4 percent of voting intentions. Ecologist leader Marine Tondelier and French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel both register between 3 percent and 4 percent.
When tested in the survey, Cannes Mayor David Lisnard, running on a liberal platform, collects 3 percent to 3.5 percent of voter support.
Second-Round Runoff Predictions
In the second round, Elabe projects Le Pen to win across every scenario tested. Against Philippe, she is credited with 52.5 percent of the vote, an increase of 0.5 points since July. Facing Attal, her projected victory rises to 57 percent, up three points.
In a runoff against Mélenchon, Le Pen is projected to win with 69.5 percent of the vote, gaining two points compared to the July survey.
The only scenario where Le Pen recedes compared to the previous edition of the barometer is against Glucksmann. While she is still projected to defeat him with 57 percent of the vote, that figure represents a decline of 1.5 percentage points since July.
