Jean-Luc Mélenchon has strengthened his position in the race for the 2027 French presidential election runoff, according to a new Ifop-Fiducial poll published on Wednesday.
While Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National continues to lead first-round voting intentions by a wide margin, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe holds only a narrow advantage over Mélenchon, the leader of the hard-left La France Insoumise party.
In the survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday for news channel LCI, newspaper Le Figaro, and radio station Sud Radio, Le Pen scored between 33 percent and 35 percent of first-round vote intentions. That marks a slight decline from the 36 percent she recorded in early July shortly after confirming her candidacy. Behind her, Horizons party president Philippe received between 18 percent and 21 percent when tested as the sole candidate for the central bloc. Mélenchon followed closely with 17 percent to 19 percent, continuing an upward trend since July while Philippe slipped slightly.
Central bloc options and left-wing candidates
The poll indicates that Mélenchon moves ahead of the central bloc if former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal represents the governing alliance instead of Philippe. Attal received 14 percent to 15 percent as the sole central candidate. In a scenario where both former prime ministers under President Emmanuel Macron enter the race, Philippe polled at 14.5 percent and Attal at 8 percent, allowing Mélenchon to lead the central bloc contenders with 16 percent to 18.5 percent of vote intentions.
On the left, social-democratic politician Raphaël Glucksmann rose to between 11 percent and 18 percent after declaring his candidacy in a primary co-organized with the Socialist Party. His result varies depending on central bloc configurations and whether Ecologist candidate Marine Tondelier and Communist leader Fabien Roussel join the race. The survey was conducted immediately following Glucksmann's candidacy announcement. An alternative scenario testing former President François Hollande as a single left-wing candidate outside La France Insoumise placed him at 12 percent.
Among conservative candidates, Bruno Retailleau of Les Républicains polled between 6 percent and 9 percent across main hypotheses. However, Retailleau climbed to 12 percent in a scenario where former Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire represented the central bloc, with Le Maire receiving 6 percent of vote intentions.
Second round projections and poll comparisons
In second-round runoff matchups, Le Pen was projected to win against every candidate tested. She led Philippe by 52 percent to 48 percent, although Philippe made slight gains compared to early summer. Le Pen scored 54 percent against both Attal and Hollande, 55 percent against Glucksmann, and 67 percent against Mélenchon.
The Ifop-Fiducial study follows a Harris Interactive-Toluna poll released earlier in the week that generated extensive political debate by showing Mélenchon closing the gap on Philippe. Under the French electoral system, voters select a president through a two-round voting process, with the top two candidates from the first round advancing to a head-to-head runoff if no candidate secures an absolute majority.
