Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is moving to take advantage of a politically weakened Centrão bloc in Congress as he prepares for his fourth term, according to political analyst Creomar de Souza.
Speaking to the programme WW, Souza, chief executive of the consultancy Dharma Politics, said the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) faces a complex legislative landscape marked by the advance of the right wing in Congress and the weakening of the traditional centrist bloc.
Souza noted that the Centrão was the political grouping that suffered the most from legislative Bolsonarism, the right-wing movement led by former president Jair Bolsonaro. He added that Lula has used the end of his third term to build a stronger political base for his fourth administration.
Transition between terms in Congress
Lula previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 before returning to office in 2023. In Brazilian politics, the Centrão is an informal coalition of pragmatic parties in the National Congress that traditionally trades legislative votes with the sitting president in exchange for cabinet posts and federal budget allocations.
In Souza's view, the current moment still represents a transition between administrations. He characterised the present phase as a Lula 3.75 government, referring to the difficulties that marked the third term and the challenges already taking shape for the fourth.
Within that transitional period, Souza said Lula is seeking to advance as many agendas as possible through a legislative pincer strategy. The analyst described the approach as a drowning embrace strategy, drawing an analogy to geopolitics and military strategy.
Supreme Federal Court and budget amendments
On another front, the president holds expectations regarding the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest court. Souza said one of the government's central bets is that the court will issue a favourable ruling that eases dialogue with the legislature, particularly by imposing limits on how parliamentary amendments to the federal budget operate.
Parliamentary amendments allow lawmakers to direct federal budget funds to their home constituencies, giving Congress substantial leverage over the executive branch. According to Souza, Lula is also set to call in a political debt from lawmakers who realise that despite Bolsonarism's promises to eliminate or reduce the left in Congress, the Centrão itself paid the price.
In the analyst's assessment, this scenario opens a window of opportunity for Lula to expand his backing in the legislature and secure approval for the government's proposals.
