President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead with 37.1 percent of voting intentions ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 34.8 percent in a new presidential survey released on Saturday by research institute Vox Brasil.
With a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points, the two candidates are in a technical tie for first place in the single prompted first-round scenario measured by the institute.
Former governor Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party ranks third in the poll with 5 percent of voter preference, followed by Renan Santos of Missao with 3.3 percent and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema of the Novo party with 2.8 percent. Writer Augusto Cury of Avante reached 2.6 percent, while Pablo Marcal of the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party gathered 2 percent of responses.
Six other candidates registered less than 1 percent each in the simulation. Clariana Barao of Christian Democracy recorded 0.8 percent, Edmilson Costa of the Brazilian Communist Party scored 0.5 percent, Wilson Grassi of Democrata received 0.4 percent, and Rui Costa Pimenta of the Cause of the Worker Party obtained 0.2 percent. Hertz Dias of the Unified Workers' Socialist Party and Samara of Popular Unity each recorded 0.1 percent. Voters intending to cast blank or spoiled ballots, or choosing none of the candidates, accounted for 3.5 percent, while 6.8 percent of respondents were undecided or declined to answer.
Electoral Context and Candidates
Lula, a member of the Workers' Party, is serving as president of Brazil. Bolsonaro represents the Liberal Party as a senator for Rio de Janeiro and is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Under Brazil's electoral system, candidates compete for the presidency at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, where a contestant must win an absolute majority in the first round to avoid a second-round run-off.
Survey Methodology
Vox Brasil interviewed 2,100 people between August 25 and August 27 to conduct the poll. The survey carries a 95 percent confidence level alongside its 2.15 percentage point margin of error.
The institute funded the survey with its own financial resources. The research is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under registration number BR-05519/2026.
