Brazil's presidential election campaign has entered a new phase as free advertising begins on radio and television, reaching voters in their homes and on the streets ahead of the October vote.
The election remains completely open and will be decided by whichever campaign makes the fewest mistakes between now and election day, according to political scientist Cristiano Noronha, vice president of political consultancy Arko Advice.
Noronha noted that the economy and corruption are the two main variables capable of shifting the race. Both President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) and the opposition campaign face ongoing investigations that could sway voters.
Lula's government faces scrutiny over ties between certain allies and Banco Master, as well as questions involving his son, Lulinha. Meanwhile, opposition senator Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) still needs to clarify issues surrounding the film Dark Horse. Noronha said corruption in particular could prove decisive for either side.
Legislative strategy and economic agenda
To build momentum, President Lula is aiming for a positive agenda in the National Congress. The government engaged in intense coordination to push a priority legislative package during a concentrated effort voting week.
The government's priority package includes ending the 6x1 work schedule, which grants employees one day off for every six worked, and a Provisional Measure addressing the blusinhas tax on low-value online imports. Lawmakers are also set to consider bills on critical minerals, special tax treatment for data centers, and a Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) on public security.
Comparing the 2022 and 2026 races
Lula starts this phase of the campaign in a tougher position than during his 2022 run against former president Jair Bolsonaro. In 2022, Lula held a wider lead over Bolsonaro, particularly in the populous states of Brazil's Southeast region.
With the contest tightly poised, Noronha said a single detail could define the final outcome for either candidate as broadcast campaigning intensifies leading into October.
