Greek households and businesses are facing a fresh wave of energy price increases spreading at once across motor fuels, electricity and heating, according to a report by Newmoney. Pressure has already reached the pumps, where petrol and diesel remain above the psychological threshold of €2 a litre despite government and industry interventions, and is now spreading to the electricity market as wholesale prices climb sharply. The squeeze is expected to peak from mid-October, when heating oil goes on sale at what current market trends suggest will be an expensive starting price.
The first line of defence against the price rises is being built with help from energy companies. In electricity, the Public Power Corporation, known as DEI, has introduced a new commercial policy built around a highly competitive fixed rate of 11.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, giving the government a significant buffer and reducing the need to return to across-the-board subsidies on bills. The pricing move effectively shields many consumers from wholesale market swings without directly burdening the state budget.
A similar model is being applied to fuel, where both the public and private sectors have been mobilised to hold down increases. Refiners have extended discounts to fuel marketing companies in an effort to get reductions to the pump and ease the final cost for drivers and businesses.
That contribution has a second reading. Businesses absorbing part of the cost may act as a counterweight to political pressure for an extraordinary tax on refiners' higher profits, an option not formally on the table in Greece but still under discussion among other major European governments. For the sector, voluntary participation in holding down retail prices may be preferable to an emergency tax intervention, an outcome the management of the HelleniQ Energy and Motor Oil groups are trying to avoid.
The approach lets the government split the burden of the energy crisis between the state and private companies while preserving fiscal reserves for winter. Market executives and international analysts say the open question is whether this line of defence can hold if international price rises become more intense or last longer.
Pressure from petrol and diesel
The first front is already fully under way at filling stations. On 2 September, the average nationwide price of regular unleaded petrol reached €2.050 a litre, with diesel at €2.016. Crossing €2 hits the two fuels differently: for petrol, the impact is felt directly in household budgets through the cost of daily travel, while for diesel it ripples more widely into freight transport, agricultural production and supply chains, and ultimately into the price of goods and services.
The government extended a 10-cent-per-litre subsidy on diesel through September, at an estimated fiscal cost of €30 million. Refiners are also continuing discounts to marketing companies worth 10 cents a litre on regular unleaded and 5 cents on diesel. Since the measure began in mid-July, refiners' total spending has reached €80 million, and combined with state support, more than €400 million has been disbursed over recent months of the crisis.
Prices remaining elevated shows the measures have not been enough to bring retail costs back to pre-war levels in the Middle East. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran since late August, which continued last week, pushed Brent crude above $95 a barrel, with little room for prices to ease. The government's economic team faces a dilemma over whether support can keep being extended month by month: continuing it creates an ongoing fiscal burden, while ending it risks an immediate pass-through at the pump and a fresh wave of indirect price rises across the economy.
Electricity market reversal
The second front is electricity, where hopes of an autumn easing have been dashed. The average wholesale price in August reached €133.4 per megawatt-hour, up from €109.95 in July, an increase of more than 21%. The rise accelerated further in early September, with the Greek market price on Thursday 3 September edging close to €200 and surging above €192.
A similar picture is playing out across most of Europe. Northern countries are seeing prices between €160 and €170, the Iberian Peninsula, traditionally lower-priced, has been swept above €140, and southeastern Europe has reached €210 per megawatt-hour. The rise stems from an unfavourable mix of factors: drought has limited hydroelectric output, significant nuclear capacity has gone offline, LNG market constraints and an inability to raise gas reserves in underground storage, which remains at 65%, and disruption to flows from the Middle East are keeping natural gas costs high. With the benchmark TTF gas price trading near €75 per megawatt-hour, expensive gas is pushing up power generation costs.
The trend particularly threatens consumers on floating, so-called "yellow" tariffs, who had hoped prices would fall once summer demand eased. The unresolved crisis with Iran is instead reigniting prices and prolonging the uncertainty.
Against that backdrop, DEI made a surprise move, cutting the rate on its fixed 12-month myHome Online tariff from 1 September to 11.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, down from 14.2 cents, with a monthly standing charge of €3.5. Both the prime minister and Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis publicised the move, which shields consumers from wholesale swings and encourages a shift away from variable "green" tariffs toward fixed products. It remains unclear to the government whether the rise will persist and require fresh intervention on bills; restoring subsidies would carry a direct fiscal cost, while suppliers absorbing the increase depends on their margins and how severe the wholesale crisis becomes.
Empty tanks before winter
The third, politically difficult front opens on 15 October, when heating oil goes on sale. Many households are entering the new season with empty tanks, after last spring's price spike froze March and April orders and halted stockpiling before the end of the winter period.
Based on current data, market sources estimate the opening price could be near €1.66 to €1.70 a litre, though that figure reflects today's market rather than a firm forecast for 15 October. Over the roughly 45 days remaining, international oil and refined product prices, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the geopolitical situation could all shift.
A comparison with last year illustrates the potential scale of the increase. On 15 October 2025, the market opened near €1.10 a litre, a price low enough to encourage many households to fill their tanks early. The conflict centred on Iran then pushed the price up to €1.70 by 30 April 2026, when distribution for the season ends, sharply curbing demand. If this year's season opens near €1.66, the gap with last year's opening price will exceed 50 cents a litre; for an order of 1,000 litres, the extra cost could top €500.
The problem is more acute in northern Greece and mountainous areas, where heating needs are greater and oil remains a primary energy source. If winter arrives early, households with empty tanks will have little room to delay buying while waiting for prices to ease.
Petrol station owners' proposal
Fuel retailers are reviving a proposal to shift the heating subsidy directly to the pump. The plan from the Panhellenic Federation of Fuel Station Owners, known as POPEK, which represents petrol station operators, is expected to be sent to the prime minister toward the end of September.
Under the plan, the existing subsidy budget would be used to cut retail prices horizontally rather than being paid to beneficiaries afterward. POPEK president Themis Kiourtzis said using the roughly €200 million budgeted for the subsidy could lower the price by about 20 cents a litre without any additional cost to the state.
Station owners argue a pump discount would be fairer than the current system because it would cover everyone who buys heating oil. They note that, under the present rules, a household can lose the entire subsidy for marginally exceeding the income threshold despite having the same heating needs as a beneficiary. A per-litre discount, they say, would proportionally support colder, mountainous households that use larger quantities, and would also cover businesses that use heating oil but currently do not qualify for the subsidy. It remains a horizontal measure, however, from which higher-income consumers would also benefit, and it is not yet clear whether it will be part of the government's planning.
Consumer support
With the opening price of heating oil, like diesel, hinging on volatile international markets, the government is keeping its options open for winter. The scale and form of any further intervention will depend on how prices move before 15 October and on the fiscal room available. Attention is turning to the prime minister's announcements at the Thessaloniki International Fair, Greece's major annual trade exhibition where economic policy is traditionally unveiled, which should show whether heating support is folded into a new package of measures or decided closer to the start of the season.
Separately, further reinforcement of the subsidy is already built into medium-term planning through the EU's Social Climate Fund. Greece's plan, approved by the European Commission on 27 August, provides for total mobilisation of €4.77 billion by 2032, of which €3.57 billion will come from European funds and €1.2 billion from national co-financing. Its measures cover around 1.5 million households and 70,000 very small businesses.
The income component of the plan provides for an annual increase of up to €100 in the heating subsidy between 2027 and 2032 for around 780,000 beneficiaries. The measure applies to those who meet the heating subsidy's existing criteria, not automatically to every citizen in a vulnerable category.
