Greece will enter its second round of credit rating evaluations for 2026 on Friday, September 4, when DBRS issues its assessment of the country's economy.
The evaluation by DBRS will be followed on September 18 by ratings from Scope Ratings and Moody's. Standard & Poor's will deliver its review on October 23, before Fitch concludes the cycle on November 6.
Credit rating agencies evaluate the financial stability of sovereign nations, assigning grades that influence government borrowing costs on international capital markets. An investment grade rating indicates that a sovereign nation carries a low risk of default, making its bonds eligible for purchase by conservative institutional investors. Major rating firms restored Greece to investment grade status in 2023 and 2024, subsequently issuing further upgrades with the exception of Moody's.
During the first half of 2026, the five credit agencies affirmed Greek sovereign debt at the BBB rating level. The agencies adopted a wait and see approach due to heightened economic uncertainty stemming from the war in Iran.
Energy Costs and Economic Growth
The upcoming rating decisions follow six months of regional instability after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz largely impassable, disrupting global energy shipping through the strategic Persian Gulf passage.
Oil and gas prices have escalated sharply since the first rating assessments took place in March 2026. Brent crude oil traded near 90 dollars per barrel, up from approximately 60 dollars at the start of the year. European natural gas prices more than doubled, climbing to 68 euros per megawatt hour on Thursday from 26.50 euros.
Despite mounting energy costs and inflationary pressure, Greek economic activity sustained its momentum. Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2 percent during the first quarter of the year. The Hellenic Statistical Authority, known as ELSTAT, is scheduled to publish official second quarter growth figures on September 7.
ELSTAT operates as an independent administrative authority responsible for compiling official economic indicators. Its quarterly figures track total national output across industrial, commercial, and service sectors.
Fiscal collection also outperformed government targets during the first seven months of the year. Greece recorded a primary budget surplus of 5.77 billion euros between January and July, bolstering efforts to trim sovereign debt.
Debt Repayment and Eurozone Ranking
Greece has accelerated its debt reduction strategy through substantial early loan repayments. Kyriakos Pierrakakis, the Minister of National Economy and Finance who also serves as President of the Eurogroup, detailed new early debt repayments totaling 12.8 billion euros.
The Eurogroup brings together finance ministers from member nations that share the euro currency to coordinate fiscal policies. The latest debt clearance is expected to comfortably surpass the government budget target, which aimed to lower sovereign debt to 138.2 percent of gross domestic product at the end of 2026 from 145.9 percent in 2025.
The rapid decline in debt leaves Italy with the highest public debt ratio in the Eurozone. Lowering sovereign debt remains the central metric analyzed by international credit rating agencies when determining sovereign credit scores.
Credit Agency Projections
Scope Ratings, which became the first agency to return Greece to investment grade, upgraded its outlook on Greek credit from stable to positive in November 2025. In its March 17 evaluation, Scope projected debt falling to 127 percent of GDP by 2030 and 120 percent by 2035.
Scope issued an updated report in June projecting that Greek debt would drop to 107 percent of GDP by 2031. That projection would place Greek debt significantly below the levels forecast for Italy, France, and Belgium.
Moody's had projected in March that Greek debt reduction would proceed at a slower pace, reaching 140 percent of GDP in 2027. That projection has become outdated following recent fiscal results and early debt repayments. Moody's noted in its previous report that upward pressure on the Greek rating could emerge if debt reductions sustained a pace significantly above expectations.
DBRS noted in March that although fiscal tailwinds were likely to continue in 2026, the economic outlook faced downside risks from escalating geopolitical tensions. The firm stated an upgrade could occur if public debt fell in line with expectations over the next one to two years and stayed on a steady medium term downward trajectory.
Fitch stated last week that rapid debt reduction served as the main trigger for three credit upgrades granted since 2021. The agency noted that while 22 percent economic growth between 2021 and 2025 compared to 13.5 percent across the European Union drove debt reduction, fiscal policy determined the speed of the decline.
Fitch warned that growth drivers are beginning to fade as tourism recovery completes, funding from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility peaks in 2026, and negative real borrowing costs end. The European Union facility provides financial support for capital projects across member states. Fitch noted that primary surpluses must carry more of the deleveraging load while maintaining those surpluses will grow more challenging amid population ageing, higher defence obligations, and shrinking political consensus.
