Credit rating agency DBRS has upgraded its outlook on Greece's BBB sovereign credit rating to positive from stable, saying it expects the country's public debt-to-GDP ratio to keep falling significantly over the coming years.
The agency based its assessment on European Commission projections showing gross public debt dropping from 143.5% of gross domestic product in March 2026 to 134.4% by the end of 2027, as the momentum of Greece's economic growth is expected to remain relatively strong. DBRS said this forecast points to the possible further gains that could come from the consolidation of primary budget surpluses.
Economy and Tourism
DBRS said the Greek economy had so far coped well with the shock of higher energy prices, with tourist arrivals continuing to rise sharply in the first half of the current year. On an annual basis, the European Commission forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.
Fiscal results have improved considerably in recent years, the agency noted, as the state budget benefited not only from strong economic growth but also from structural reforms that increased tax compliance and, as a result, broadened the country's tax base.
Budget Surplus Forecasts
The Greek government has adopted some expansionary measures this year, including cuts to income tax, but fiscal performance is still expected to remain strong. The European Commission forecasts that the government's primary surplus will reach 4.0% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, compared with 4.9% in 2025.
Political Risk Seen as Limited
DBRS acknowledged that current opinion polls point to a potentially difficult period for forming a government after next year's elections. Even so, the agency said it views political risk as limited, since there is broad consensus among the main political parties on key policy issues.
DBRS is one of the credit rating agencies recognised by the European Central Bank when assessing the collateral quality of eurozone government bonds. A BBB rating places Greek debt in investment-grade territory, and a positive outlook signals that the agency could raise the rating further if current trends continue.
