The Bank of Russia increased the official US dollar exchange rate above 85 rubles on Monday, setting the currency at 85.01 rubles for August 18.
The official rate for the US dollar climbed by 47 kopecks, while the European euro gained 83 kopecks to reach 98.34 rubles, according to data published on the regulator website.
During intraday trading on Monday, August 17, market movements briefly pushed the euro above 99 rubles while the dollar approached 87 rubles.
The Bank of Russia serves as the national central bank and monetary authority, publishing official benchmark foreign exchange rates daily for financial institutions and commercial operations across the country.
Trade balance surplus and ruble pressure
Spartak Sobolev, head of investment strategy research at financial services firm Alfa-Forex, explained that Russia experienced a decline in its trade balance surplus during June.
The trade surplus narrowed from 14.15 billion dollars to 12.46 billion dollars in June, Sobolev said in comments cited by news outlet RT.
He added that the combination of a reduced trade surplus and growing interest in foreign currency among commercial importers weakened financial support for the ruble through July and August.
In international trade, a country trade surplus represents the net value of exports exceeding imports, providing foreign currency inflows that help support national currency stability.
Exchange rate forecast for upcoming weeks
Igor Rastorguev, lead analyst at financial consultancy AMarkets, reminded on August 17 that the exchange rate lacks a fixed floor and depends on exporter currency earnings and buyer demand.
Speaking to news website Lenta.ru, Rastorguev said the US dollar will likely fluctuate between 84 and 86 rubles in the coming weeks.
Rastorguev added that the euro is expected to trade near 97 to 100 rubles over the same period.
The Russian ruble is subdivided into 100 kopecks, with daily exchange rates directly influencing import prices and financial accounting for foreign trade transactions.
