Rising extreme temperatures caused by climate change could disrupt summer tourism across Mediterranean economies within the next two years, according to Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research and chief Eurozone economist for the Dutch financial services firm ING Group.
Speaking to the French daily financial newspaper Les Echos, the German economist warned that intense heatwaves will increasingly deter visitors from traveling to major southern European cities during peak summer months. He highlighted cities such as Madrid, the Spanish capital, as well as Barcelona and Rome as being particularly vulnerable to shifting travel habits.
Brzeski explained that the transition in tourist behavior will happen gradually rather than overnight. While vacationers are unlikely to cancel bookings due to a single season of extreme heat, summer travel patterns across European economies will undergo a noticeable shift over the next two years as visitors opt for cooler destinations.
Rising heat and shifting travel trends
The projected change in behavior comes after record-breaking weather across southern Europe. In Spain, July 2026 was recorded as the hottest July in history, registering an average temperature of 27.1 degrees Celsius. That figure represented an anomaly of 2.7 degrees Celsius above the historical average recorded between 1991 and 2020.
Spain also endured a streak of 49 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding historical averages between June and July 2026. Although the prolonged heatwave did not immediately lower tourist numbers this year, experts caution that continued extreme weather could eventually cause a sustained drop in summer visitors.
Earlier climate research underscores the scale of rising temperatures in urban centers. A recent report published by AXA Climate, a specialized climate risk firm, projected that temperatures in Madrid could rise by 5.5 degrees Celsius over the next 25 years, giving the Spanish capital a climate similar to Marrakech in Morocco.
Economic risks for Mediterranean nations
As temperatures climb, traditional summer getaways to southern Europe may lose their appeal. Brzeski noted that going to the beach in 40-degree heat will cease to be an attractive option for holidaymakers, prompting a growing preference for cold-climate vacations in northern European countries such as Scandinavia, Iceland, and Finland.
A key concern for economists is whether increased visitor arrivals in shoulder months, such as June or September, can make up for losses incurred during July and August. If shoulder-season visits fail to compensate for the drop, the broader economies of Mediterranean nations could face severe headwinds.
Tourism represents a critical economic engine for southern Europe, generating between 13 percent and 15 percent of gross domestic product in countries such as Spain, Greece, and Italy. A reduction in summer tourist volume could directly threaten revenue and employment across these nations.
Regional shifts and northern infrastructure challenges
While southern resort cities face declining summer demand, cooler domestic regions could see an influx of visitors. Brzeski pointed out that just as mountainous regions in France could benefit from changing climate patterns, cooler northern Spanish areas such as Galicia could draw more tourists seeking relief from heatwaves.
However, a sudden surge in northern European tourism presents its own set of operational challenges. Brzeski expressed concern that northern nations currently lack the infrastructure and capacity required to handle large-scale tourist flows. Adapting from low-density individual tourism models to high-capacity Mediterranean-style tourism will require substantial financial investment.
Beyond financial costs, rapid tourism growth could spark friction with local residents in northern destinations. Brzeski questioned whether northern cities might experience resident pushback similar to that seen in Mallorca, the Spanish island where local populations have voiced frustration over high volumes of year-round tourism.
