Reserve Security Service of Ukraine Major General Viktor Yagun stated that long-range Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia have altered daily reality across the country. Yagun, who served as deputy head of the SBU in 2014 and 2015 and currently directs the Security Sector Reform Agency, shared his analysis with news outlet LIGA.net. He cautioned that while daily conditions have shifted, observers should not expect rapid political changes inside the Kremlin.
Yagun said signs of the war entering daily life in Russia include gas station queues, fuel sale limits, airport closures, logistics disruptions, and frequent air raid alerts. By early July, Russian oil refineries were unable to satisfy seasonal petrol demand, prompting authorities to station extra security forces near certain gas stations.
However, Yagun stated that fuel shortages alone will not trigger mass protests or policy shifts in an authoritarian state. He explained that the Kremlin relies on propaganda, repressive state bodies, economic reserves, and the power to reallocate losses between regions and industries. He added that in the short term, long-range strikes may even cause part of the population to rally around the regime and intensify aggressive rhetoric.
Impact on Russian Elites
Yagun identified the primary targets of the strike campaign as Russia military and political leaders, business owners, energy corporations, regional elites, and security agencies rather than ordinary citizens. He said these groups directly experience the financial cost of the war through lost production, falling export revenue, diminished insurance coverage, blocked transport routes, and damaged equipment.
The greatest threat to the Russian regime is a loss of predictability rather than a single large fire, according to Yagun. Systemic stability breaks down when factory managers cannot plan weekly operations, regions face uncertain fuel supplies, and military commanders must choose which sites to protect with air defense systems.
Long-Term Economic Effects
If Ukraine continues its long-range campaign, Yagun expects reduced oil refining, higher repair costs, growing fuel imports, lower export earnings, complicated military logistics, and increased pressure on the Russian state budget.
Yagun stressed that strikes alone will not cause an immediate regime collapse or force Vladimir Putin to end the war. He cited a Reuters report stating there is no evidence the strikes have forced the Kremlin to alter its strategic course, alongside Moscow sources claiming the attacks have strengthened domestic resolve to continue fighting.
Instead of expecting a sudden political breakdown, Yagun said Ukraine must focus on cumulative pressure that makes each month of war more expensive, complex, and unpredictable for Russia. His analysis followed a 40-day SBU operation that ended on Aug. 4 after hitting more than 100 strategic targets deep inside Russian territory.
