Peru's multisectoral commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, known as Enfen, said it is maintaining the "El Niño Costero Alert" status after reviewing recent ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific along with national and international climate forecasts.
The commission said the coastal El Niño phenomenon would continue until mid-autumn 2027, with the highest probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027.
Between February and March, the event would remain at strong to extraordinary magnitude before gradually declining toward a neutral condition, Enfen said.
El Niño Costero is a localized warming of ocean waters off Peru's northern and central coast, distinct from the broader Pacific-wide El Niño phenomenon. It typically brings heavier rainfall, flooding risk and disruption to fishing along the Peruvian coast.
Temperatures and rainfall forecast
For the September-to-November quarter, Enfen forecast that air temperatures on the Peruvian coast would remain well above usual levels, with new records expected.
Rainfall above normal is expected on the north coast, with possible episodes of moderate to strong rain from November onward. The southern highlands and parts of the Amazon are expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall.
River flows across Peru
Rivers in the Pacific hydrographic region are expected to carry above-normal average flows, mainly in the north from November onward. Central and southern areas, including the Amazon and Titicaca hydrographic regions, are expected to see normal to below-normal flows.
Anchovy stocks stay retreated
On fisheries, Enfen said anchovy in the north-central region is expected to remain in deep water and retreated toward the coastal zone in the coming weeks. Off the central coast, species tied to equatorial waters, such as peces sierra and samasa, and oceanic species including mahi-mahi, skipjack, frigate tuna and yellowfin tuna, will continue to be available, among others.
Enfen recommended that decision-makers take into account risk scenarios based on current weather warnings and seasonal forecasts in order to adopt disaster risk reduction measures and respond to imminent hazards.
