Moscow will experience unusually warm weather at the start of winter, according to Meteonovosti weather service senior specialist Tatiana Pozdnyakova.
Pozdnyakova said preliminary forecasts indicate that November and December in the Russian capital will see positive temperature anomalies. She emphasized that these initial calculations are unofficial and remain subject to change as updated meteorological data arrives.
Pozdnyakova noted that predicting weather conditions for subsequent winter months remains difficult because no official forecast currently exists. She added that official long range seasonal forecasts generally carry a success rate of 65 to 70 percent.
Meteonovosti is a specialized meteorological news and weather service covering Moscow and the surrounding Moscow Oblast. Moscow, the capital of Russia, sits in a humid continental climate zone where winter traditionally brings prolonged sub-zero temperatures, freezing conditions, and steady snowfall starting in November.
The weather forecast arrives as seasonal wildlife patterns shift across the region. Migratory birds have begun their annual departure from the capital, with species such as swifts, cuckoos, swallows, and flycatchers already leaving Moscow for warmer wintering grounds.
Snow predictions and shorter winter season
Hydrometeorological Centre Director Yuri Simonov conceded that the upcoming winter in Moscow could turn out to be quite snowy. He emphasized that winter weather in the capital region demonstrates marked instability from year to year, with periods of thaw alternating with cold snaps and wet snow with rain followed by heavy blizzards.
The Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, headquartered in Moscow, is the primary state scientific research and operational agency responsible for environmental monitoring, weather warnings, and official national forecasting across the Russian Federation.
Fobos weather center senior specialist Evgeny Tishkovets said meteorological winter in Moscow could be shorter by two to three weeks this season. Meteorological winter normally begins in mid-November and concludes on March 20.
Tishkovets noted that motorists in the capital will need to swap summer tires for winter tires later than usual. He added that the first snow of the season could fall in the second half of October.
In November, snow episodes will become more frequent, according to Tishkovets. However, he stated that any early snow cover will be temporary, noting that even if one to two centimeters accumulate, it will disappear after a short period of time.
Nationwide forecast and El Nino impact
Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo weather forecasting center, warned that the 2026 to 2027 winter in several regions of Russia could be colder than usual. Shuvalov pointed out that summer this year turned out to be typical for the country rather than anomalous, contrary to earlier predictions.
In contrast, Tishkovets suggested that the upcoming winter across most of Russia will be warm, with temperature anomalies potentially reaching three to four degrees above normal. He explained that the shift is driven by El Nino, with the strongest warming expected in Central Russia and southern regions.
El Nino is a major climate phenomenon defined by the periodic warming of surface ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This oceanic warming alters global atmospheric circulation patterns and jet streams, frequently bringing milder winter weather and unseasonable warmth across large parts of northern Eurasia.
