Military experts Viktor Kevlyuk and Major General Viktor Yahun have outlined three potential outcomes following a 40-day Security Service of Ukraine operation targeting sites in Russia. Speaking to media outlet LIGA.net, the analysts noted that the campaign could force Moscow into negotiations or lead to Russian military adaptation.
Kevlyuk, an expert at the Centre for Defence Strategies, and Yahun, former deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine and director of the Security Sector Reform Agency, detailed both optimistic and challenging paths for Ukraine. The most positive outcome relies on a cumulative fuel crisis, weakened air defenses, and escalating disruption in Crimea, forcing Moscow to show flexibility in talks.
Under that best-case scenario, Ukraine would maintain or increase strike intensity on facilities experiencing shortages or extended shutdowns. Regular attacks on Russian defense factories and oil refineries would ideally prevent Moscow from restoring its military industrial capacity in time.
Alternative Scenarios and Target Types
In a second scenario, Ukrainian strikes produce noticeable results that remain insufficient for swift political changes. Kyiv would then transition to an indefinite campaign targeting critical infrastructure, including control systems, pumping stations, power grids, repair facilities, and transport hubs.
The least favorable scenario involves Russia successfully adapting by reinforcing air defenses, dispersing manufacturing, constructing shelters, importing fuel, and altering supply lines. That outcome would trigger a war of attrition, requiring Ukraine to continuously vary its attack routes, altitudes, tactics, weapons, and warhead types.
Yahun emphasized that concluding the formal 40-day period should not bring an end to deep strikes. He explained that the date marks the end of a single planning cycle, after which officials will evaluate results, refine target lists, and launch the next operational phase.
Special Forces Operations and Campaign Scale
The Ukrainian security services organize long-range operations from start to finish because specialized units can act where conventional military forces are too slow or visible to Russian forces. Yahun categorized Ukraine's targets into three distinct groups: defense industrial plants, fuel and energy infrastructure, and military logistics hubs.
However, former Armed Forces of Ukraine General Staff spokesperson Vladyslav Seleznov expressed doubt regarding the immediate strategic impact of the campaign. Seleznov told LIGA.net that long-range strikes currently lack the overall scale necessary to compel Russian leader Vladimir Putin to enter peace negotiations.
