Expanding critical mineral production and investments could add R$ 192.1 billion to Brazil's gross domestic product by 2050, according to a study released by Amcham. The projection also estimates the creation of 750,000 jobs over the period.
The estimate reflects the study's most ambitious scenario, in which Brazil expands mineral output, secures domestic and foreign capital, and processes inputs within domestic industrial supply chains. Benefited sectors include the manufacturing of batteries, vehicles, electric motors, wind turbines, machinery and equipment, while continuing exports to overseas markets.
In this ambitious scenario, household consumption would gain an additional R$ 54.6 billion, investments would grow by R$ 120.9 billion, and exports would rise by R$ 27 billion by 2050. These figures represent cumulative economic deviations from the baseline trajectory of the economy rather than direct project investments.
Industrial processing impacts
Amcham compared this scenario against an alternative focused strictly on mining expansion and exports funded solely by domestic resources. Under that narrower approach, the impact on gross domestic product would reach R$ 128.7 billion, creating about 304,000 jobs.
The difference between the two scenarios, described in the study as a deepening effect, totals R$ 63.4 billion in gross domestic product and 446,000 jobs. The study noted that this gap demonstrates how combining foreign capital with local industrial processing generates broader economic gains than relying primarily on raw commodity exports.
Under the higher industrialization model, manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment would see the largest gain, growing by 16.7 percent. Automotive manufacturing would rise by 5.5 percent, and mechanical machinery and equipment would increase by 2.9 percent. Overall manufacturing would expand by a cumulative 1.82 percent, nearly triple the 0.64 percent increase projected in the export-only scenario.
Planned mining investments
The study also mapped US$ 20.5 billion in critical mineral investments planned in Brazil between 2026 and 2030. Copper projects account for the largest share at US$ 8.62 billion, located in Pará and Bahia.
Nickel projects represent the second largest allocation at US$ 4.74 billion in Pará and Goiás. Rare earth mineral projects account for US$ 2.39 billion across Goiás and Minas Gerais.
