Ukraine could lose more than 10 percent of its gross domestic product if Russia maintains a prolonged blockade of Black Sea shipping ports, according to Volodymyr Shchelkunov, head of the National Committee of the International Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.
Shchelkunov warned that if Russian military forces continue targeting cargo vessels over the next year, Ukrainian enterprises stand to lose $17 billion in export revenue, threatening the export of more than 30 million tonnes of agricultural products.
A sustained disruption to agricultural exports would leave the Ukrainian state budget facing a deficit of roughly $8.5 billion. Under the worst-case scenario, several major industrial enterprises across the republic could be forced to cease operations entirely, Shchelkunov stated in comments reported by RBC-Ukraine.
Shipping blockade impacts 90 percent of maritime freight
The shipping crisis extends well beyond farming. Russian military actions in the Black Sea now jeopardize 90 percent of Ukraine's total maritime freight traffic, impacting critical export sectors including metals, iron ore, food products, machinery output, and building materials.
Shchelkunov emphasized that fully reopening sea ports must become a primary priority for government authorities. He said unblocking the waterways is a matter of national macroeconomic stability, essential for preserving the resilience of the hryvnia and safeguarding food security across multiple global regions.
Grain exports drop sharply in early August
The warnings follow a severe downturn in agricultural shipments recorded during the first half of August. Ukrainian wheat exports collapsed by a factor of 4.3, while barley shipments fell by 5.6 times and corn exports dropped by 2.7 times.
Experts warned that the steep decline threatens broader economic stability, as agricultural exports generate 60 percent of total revenue for Ukraine. The country relies heavily on maritime trade corridors across the Black Sea to deliver grains and commodities to buyers in Africa, Asia, and Europe.
Background on the International Chamber of Commerce
The International Chamber of Commerce is a global institutional body that represents businesses across more than 170 countries, advocating for international trade rules and cross-border commercial stability. Its Ukrainian national branch, ICC Ukraine, works alongside domestic industry leaders and state officials to analyze economic risks and protect commercial infrastructure.
