The Brazilian Institute of Climate Adaptation warned at Climate Week Sao Paulo on Thursday that a Super El Nino will cause extreme weather across Brazil.
The climate phenomenon is expected to take place between the spring of 2026 and early 2027. Experts warned it will trigger contrasting environmental extremes, bringing severe droughts to northern regions and intense rainfall to the south.
Climate Week Sao Paulo brings together policy makers, researchers, and urban planners in Brazil's largest city to discuss environmental governance. Speaking on a panel titled Super El Nino: From Climate Alert to Urban Action, specialists discussed environmental data alongside mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Luciana Lanna, the president of the institute, known as IBRAAC, said the country is already experiencing the direct consequences of global climate change firsthand. IBRAAC works as a non-governmental organization focused on developing policy frameworks to help Brazilian cities adjust to climate risks.
Lanna explained that El Nino will spread across Brazil unevenly, creating distinct risks and local challenges for each territory. She stated that climate change in Brazil is defined by either an excess or a shortage of rain, adding that while diagnostic data and climate information are readily available, a concerning gap persists between scientific knowledge and practical government action.
Regional climate impacts across Brazil
In northern Brazil, the Amazon rainforest faces projections of low rainfall, delayed rainy seasons, critical river levels, a heightened risk of forest fires, and degraded air quality. The Amazon basin spans northern Brazil and plays a vital role in regulating rainfall patterns across South America, making its river networks sensitive to prolonged dry spells.
The Northeast region of Brazil is forecast to suffer from prolonged drought conditions, putting severe pressure on local water reservoirs that supply municipal water systems.
Conversely, southern Brazil is expected to face heavy precipitation. In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state where soil is already saturated, intense rain could lead to overflowing rivers, widespread flooding, waterlogging, landslides, severe storms, and tempests.
Pacific warming and climate targets
El Nino occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise above historical averages, altering global atmospheric circulation. Current ocean measurements show temperatures running 2 degrees Celsius above average, an elevation that intensifies droughts, floods, inundations, and wildfires.
Lanna highlighted the target established under Brazil's national climate plan, known as Plano Clima. Under the framework, all Brazilian states and 35 percent of municipalities must establish formal climate adaptation plans by 2035.
She emphasized that meeting this target requires intelligent territorial management, adding that climate adaptation planning must be integrated directly into public budgets across all levels of government.
Effects across South America
The Super El Nino is also forecast to impact neighboring countries across South America. Northern regions of the continent, including Colombia and Venezuela, face projections of record heat and severe hydrological drought.
Excess rainfall is expected across northern and northeastern Argentina, as well as in Uruguay and Paraguay. Meanwhile, coastal areas of Ecuador and Peru are preparing for intense storms and flooding.
