Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) said rising sea temperatures off the country's northern coast are creating favorable conditions for increased rainfall in the region. The agency said sea temperatures adjacent to the northern coast currently exceed 26 degrees Celsius.
Senamhi said precipitation is expected to increase in the coming days and become more frequent from November onward.
Nelson Quispe Gutierrez, a specialist in meteorological monitoring at Senamhi, told the Andina news agency that when sea temperatures reach these levels, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, which favors the formation of rainfall.
Quispe said sea temperatures off Tumbes have reached 26 degrees Celsius, while in the Gulf of Guayaquil in Ecuador they range between 27 and 28 degrees Celsius. He said these conditions have already produced rainfall along Ecuador's southern coast that is unusual for this time of year.
Rainfall expected to intensify
Quispe said a significant increase in rainfall could occur on Peru's northern coast in the coming days. He added that rain would gradually increase in both frequency and intensity from November, becoming more intense toward the end of the year.
As sea surface temperatures rise and the warming trend moves south toward Piura, rainfall will begin to spread more widely, the specialist said. He estimated that the most intense rainfall would occur between February and March, with accumulated totals of between 150 and 200 millimeters per square meter, or even higher.
Tumbes and Piura are coastal regions in northern Peru that border Ecuador and are among the areas most exposed to warming ocean conditions linked to El Nino weather patterns.
Rainfall deficit elsewhere
Quispe also said the effects of what he described as El Nino Global could produce a rainfall deficit in parts of southern Peru and in Amazon regions of Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, as well as in northern Ecuador and parts of Venezuela and Colombia.
In Peru, he pointed to the San Martin region, where the first rains in almost 12 days fell after a dry spell. He also said river flows near towns such as Pucallpa are already showing slight declines.
Quispe said prolonged dry spells are expected in some areas because of El Nino Global, a situation that could affect activities such as agriculture and river transport.
