Peru has cut its 2026 growth forecasts for fishing and agriculture as severe weather conditions linked to El Niño harm primary economic sectors across the country.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance reported in its Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework for 2027 to 2030 that fishing output will contract by 25.8 percent this year, while the agricultural and livestock sector will shrink by 1.4 percent. The downward revisions contrast with an upward adjustment in the government's overall economic growth projection for Peru in 2026.
In its previous Macroeconomic Projections Update Report published in April, the ministry had anticipated a 2.3 percent growth rate for agriculture and a 2.3 percent contraction for fishing. The revised figures mark the sharpest annual drop for Peru's fishing industry since 2014.
Agricultural downturn and crop losses
The ministry explained in the official document that the agricultural and livestock sector faces severe disruptions from coastal El Niño conditions alongside a reduction in total harvested area. Crop production specifically is expected to drop by 3.2 percent in 2026, reversing an April forecast of 2.1 percent growth. For 2027, crop growth projections have been lowered from 4.2 percent to zero.
During the first half of 2026, the broader agricultural sector contracted by 0.6 percent, driven by a 1.9 percent decline in crop output. Officials attributed the fall to poor performances among crops aimed at the domestic market, including onions, olives, paprika, and forage oats. The decline followed a reduction in planting between August 2025 and June 2026 as adverse weather developed.
Domestic crop production was further damaged by severe phytosanitary issues. An outbreak of fruit flies in the southern coastal region of Tacna caused heavy damage to olive harvests during the first six months of the year.
Agricultural exports also suffered during the same period. Coffee and cocoa experienced lower crop yields, while mango harvests were curtailed by a smaller harvested area linked to an ongoing water crisis in the northern region of Piura.
Tacna is Peru's southernmost region and a major center for olive production, while Piura is a crucial agricultural zone on the northern coast. The Mediterranean fruit fly is a major agricultural pest in South America that infests ripening fruit and damages commercial crops.
Rainfall anomalies and highland drought
The ministry projected that agricultural difficulties will persist through the second half of 2026 as coastal El Niño conditions continue into the summer of 2027. Weather forecasts point to contrasting climate disruptions across different geographical regions of the country.
Above-normal rainfall is expected along the northern and central coast, affecting the regions of Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Áncash, and Lima. Meanwhile, a severe water deficit is forecast for the southern Andean highlands, impacting the regions of Huancavelica, Apurímac, Ayacucho, and Cusco.
Government analysts warned that these regional disruptions will intensify as a very strong global El Niño event develops between October 2026 and February 2027. The weather pattern threatens yields for key agro-export products including blueberries, grapes, avocados, and mangoes, as well as domestic staples such as rice, corn, and potatoes.
The ministry expects a modest recovery for agriculture in 2027, projecting overall sector growth of 0.8 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 3.8 percent. Officials attribute the projected turnaround to a gradual improvement in export crop yields, normalizing weather patterns, and targeted sector policies.
Anchovy catch plunges to historic low
Peru's fishing industry has suffered an even larger setback, with the ministry revising its 2026 sector forecast from a 2.3 percent contraction in April to a 25.8 percent drop in August. Official reports cited significantly lower landings of anchovy caused by the environmental effects of El Niño.
During the first north-central anchovy fishing season of 2026, fleets landed just 471,000 metric tons. High concentrations of juvenile anchovies forced authorities to shut down the fishing season early on August 19 to protect stocks as coastal waters warmed.
Persistent coastal El Niño conditions, expected to reach strong to extraordinary intensity during the second half of the year, will continue to constrain fishing operations. The ministry estimates that the second north-central season catch will reach only 1 million metric tons, matching levels recorded during the extraordinary El Niño of 1998.
Total anchovy landings for 2026 are projected at 1.8 million metric tons. This represents a sharp drop from the 4.6 million metric tons landed in 2025.
Peru boasts the world's largest commercial fishery by volume, centered on the Peruvian anchoveta in the cold, nutrient-rich waters of the Humboldt Current. The vast majority of the catch is processed into fishmeal and fish oil for global export to animal feed and aquaculture markets. Warmer ocean temperatures during El Niño push anchovy schools deeper or farther south, out of reach of commercial fishing fleets.
Projected recovery through 2028
Looking ahead to 2027, the ministry forecasts a partial recovery for the fishing sector, with growth projected at 4 percent as oceanographic conditions gradually stabilize.
The anticipated expansion will be supported by a progressive normalization in catches of key marine species, including anchovy, horse mackerel, bonito, and shrimp, alongside freshwater trout production.
Under the improving oceanographic scenario detailed in the macroeconomic framework, anchovy landings allocated for indirect human consumption are expected to reach 1.9 million metric tons in 2027.
According to the ministry's figures, the economic trajectory for both primary sectors indicates a deep contraction in 2026, followed by a moderate recovery in 2027 and a stronger rebound in 2028.
