Greece's ruling New Democracy party expanded its lead in election estimates to 29.7 percent following the Thessaloniki International Fair, according to a survey by Real Polls for news outlet Protagon.
The party gained 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous measurement, maintaining its position at the top of the survey.
The Hellenic Left Alignment, led by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras, remained in second place with 17.9 percent but suffered a significant drop of 3.5 percentage points.
The Panhellenic Socialist Movement, known as PASOK, placed third with 10.8 percent, up from 9.9 percent recorded in June.
Electoral Estimates and Parliamentary Thresholds
Hope for Democracy, led by Maria Karystianou, secured 7.5 percent in the election estimate.
Greek Solution followed with 6.2 percent, while the Communist Party of Greece reached 5.8 percent, Course of Freedom gathered 4.9 percent, and Voice of Reason recorded 4.6 percent.
MeRA25 scored 2.5 percent, and SYRIZA registered 0.8 percent in the electoral estimate.
Based on those figures, both MeRA25 and SYRIZA would remain outside Parliament. Under Greek electoral law, political parties must secure at least 3 percent of the national vote to gain seats in the Hellenic Parliament.
Voting Intention Trends
In terms of raw voting intention, New Democracy registered 24 percent, followed by the Hellenic Left Alignment at 15.1 percent and PASOK at 9.4 percent.
Hope for Democracy fell to 6 percent in voting intention, continuing a downward trajectory after recording 9.4 percent in June and 11.4 percent in May.
Greek Solution and the Communist Party of Greece tied at 4.8 percent each, while Course of Freedom scored 4.2 percent and Voice of Reason rose to 3.7 percent.
MeRA25 registered 2.4 percent, while SYRIZA, New Left, and Niki were each restricted to 0.8 percent.
Challenges for Alexis Tsipras
Despite its losses, the Hellenic Left Alignment maintains a clear 7.1 percentage point advantage over PASOK in the race for second place.
However, the research revealed warning signs for officials surrounding former prime minister Alexis Tsipras.
The current voter base of the Hellenic Left Alignment remains heavily tied to former SYRIZA supporters, with 68 percent of its current voters having chosen SYRIZA in the June 2023 general election.
While consolidating that audience secures second place for now, expanding appeal to voters from other political spaces remains an unresolved challenge.
The presence of Alexis Tsipras at the Thessaloniki International Fair also failed to produce expected results. When asked which party was most convincing that its announced measures were reliable and feasible, the Hellenic Left Alignment gathered 11.4 percent, while its general trust figure reached 16.1 percent.
Voter Reactions to Policy Announcements
Among economic measures announced by New Democracy at the fair, 21.9 percent of citizens highlighted the pledge to raise the minimum wage to 1,000 euros by 2028.
However, the most popular response regarding government measures was none of them, chosen by 30 percent of respondents.
For PASOK's proposals, 29.1 percent favored restoring the 13th month salary and 13th pension, while 17.8 percent highlighted the four-day work week without pay reduction.
On the Hellenic Left Alignment platform, reducing value-added tax to 6 percent on essential items led with 26.6 percent, followed by raising the minimum wage to 1,000 euros within 2027 at 12.4 percent.
Political Clash and Governing Majority Prospects
When asked which political party emerged victorious from recent political confrontations, 44.6 percent of citizens answered none of the three major parties.
New Democracy gathered 24.7 percent, close to its voting intention rate, while the Hellenic Left Alignment was limited to 11.2 percent and PASOK recorded 8.5 percent.
Despite New Democracy's clear lead, the majority of citizens do not consider a single-party government likely. Specifically, 71.2 percent estimated that New Democracy probably or certainly will not secure an absolute majority in the next elections, compared to 26.3 percent who expressed the opposite view.
The government maintains its position as favorite, but governing alone is not considered realistic by most respondents.
Overall assessment of the situation in the country remains negative, with 67.1 percent considering that Greece is moving in the wrong direction, compared to 29.6 percent who estimated it is moving in the right direction.
