Europe must build its own defense plan against Russia without relying on the United States, columnist Nathalie Tocci wrote in an article for the Guardian, stressing the importance of Europe taking responsibility for its own security.
Tocci said Russian provocations and hybrid interference in European politics suggest Moscow could launch a kinetic war against Europe within the next few years or even months. She noted that European countries, especially those close to Russia, are increasing their defense budgets in response.
She said the rise in defense spending followed Donald Trump's return to the White House, but argued it stems from the growing threat from Russia rather than pressure from the US president, as Europeans realize they could be left alone against Moscow in the event of aggression.
The rise of 'NATO 3.0'
This realization is driving what is informally called "NATO 3.0," according to Tocci. She said the popular slogan "a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO" is misleading, since although Europeans are indeed becoming stronger, the alliance itself weakens without the United States.
Tocci outlined several possible future scenarios for NATO. The worst, she said, would be a Russian invasion within the coming months or years, in which case European countries would come to the rescue, with Germany's reaction being especially important and possibly followed by France and the United Kingdom, with most other NATO members joining the defense.
Tocci wrote that the good news is Europeans would likely remain united, but the bad news is the United States might not answer the call to defend Europe, which would instantly collapse NATO.
A second scenario without invasion
The second scenario involves no Russian attack, with "NATO 3.0" continuing to develop actively. This would make Europe, together with Turkey and Canada, significantly stronger, but would also reduce cooperation between these countries and the United States as Europeans become more independent. Tocci said it is hard to imagine Washington calmly watching such a development.
Tocci added that the European Union is doing important work on defense industry cooperation and even has a mutual assistance clause enshrined in its treaties, but she does not consider this a realistic path forward for defense due to a number of constitutional and political constraints.
'Coalitions of the willing'
This opens the way for so-called "coalitions of the willing," currently formed around critical security issues including Ukraine, Greenland and the Strait of Hormuz. Tocci called this format "situational and ephemeral" because it lacks a system for strategic decision-making, though she said it could work if such coalitions were institutionalized at the political level, such as through a European Security Council, an idea born after Brexit meant to keep Britain an active participant in European security.
Tocci concluded that none of this should lower the priority of Europeanizing NATO, but coalitions of the willing could become a critically important insurance policy if "NATO 3.0" fails.
Warnings on possible Russia-NATO war
Journalists at the Independent earlier identified three signs that Vladimir Putin is preparing to attack NATO, including an active Moscow disinformation and destabilization campaign in Europe and Putin's confidence in a near-term victory over Ukraine. British intelligence has also previously reported possible serious Russian provocations against NATO, saying this could happen within months, aided by the fact that the United States is currently tied up in a war in the Middle East, which increases Putin's confidence.
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