Britain risks blackouts this winter unless it gets lucky, an energy consultant and parliamentary adviser has warned, as households brace for a fresh rise in bills. Kathryn Porter said the country's rush toward Net Zero has left it unable to meet its own electricity demand, particularly when wind power falls short.
"We've put ourselves in a position where we can't meet our own demand, particularly when the wind doesn't blow," Porter told The Mail on Sunday. "We can cope with these risks individually, but combined they are a threat. It means we have to be lucky all the time."
"Every single winter we're making this gamble, and eventually we'll lose," she said. "It could well lead to higher electricity prices and, if we finally run out of luck, blackouts."
Porter's warning comes as European nations face a string of energy shocks in the coming weeks, including the Iran war, record low gas reserves and a water shortage in Norway that threatens to cut hydro-electric exports. She said Britain is uniquely exposed because the closure of power stations and the shift toward wind and solar generation mean the country now imports electricity from its neighbours.
Price cap rises again
Her comments follow an announcement from Ofgem, Britain's energy regulator, that the price cap will rise by £60 to £1,723 in October, a 4 per cent increase. Experts have predicted that household bills are about to surge further.
Political reaction
Shadow energy minister Andrew Bowie described the looming electricity shortage as "increasingly dangerous" and urged the Labour government to resume drilling in the North Sea.
"It is a threat to our security and prosperity," he told The Mail on Sunday. "We're more exposed than any other country, it's deeply worrying. It demonstrates the folly of failing to exploit our own resources. If we got the Jackdaw gas field up and running now, we could be pumping gas by Christmas."
It was reported on Friday that a decision on whether to open the Jackdaw North Sea gas field near Aberdeen is likely to be postponed until after the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The seat is expected to be contested between Labour and the Green Party candidate, Zack Polanski.
Grid upgrade delays
A National Audit Office report has separately warned that delays to a £70billion upgrade of the national grid will cost consumers billions of pounds, because the transmission system cannot cope with the rapid shift to renewables. The National Audit Office is the independent body that scrutinises public spending on behalf of Parliament. It estimates that attempts to decarbonise the grid by 2030 will add £1.9billion a year to bills.
Norway's 'battery' warning
Britain's position could worsen if neighbouring governments prioritise their own consumers over exports, as some fear. Norwegian politicians are already demanding export controls, arguing that Norway should not be treated as "Europe's battery."
"There's a danger governments will prioritise their own consumers," said Porter, who advises MPs on the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Energy Studies. "They will stop exporting any spare capacity and the market will break down."
This year's heatwaves have left reservoir levels lower than at any point in 20 years, and they continue to fall. Porter said Britain's ageing electricity infrastructure, combined with the move away from traditional power stations toward unpredictable wind and solar energy, is adding to the problem.
Whistleblower claims
In June, whistleblowers at the National Energy System Operator, known as Neso, claimed the national grid had been so short of electricity that it breached safety limits at one point, prompting an independent inquiry. One Neso engineer told The Mail on Sunday that power cuts are now a "mathematical certainty."
The engineer claimed that staff charged with keeping the grid stable are "flying blind," working with minimal information while having to manage thousands of unpredictable wind and solar generators around the country.
Porter said that if this winter brings another long spell of high pressure and little wind, similar to conditions seen this summer, Britain would face an extraordinarily difficult position.
"You don't have to have too many things go against you for the grid to break down," she said. "Losing one big power station or one big interconnector would be enough. Who, in the cold light of day, could honestly say this is a sensible way to run things?"
