Political analyst Alexey Zhivov said the Ukrainian armed forces are unlikely to be preparing a large-scale counteroffensive, telling Tsargrad that any local attacks would not be able to change the situation at the front due to shortages of personnel and equipment.
Zhivov said Ukrainian forces would likely rely on targeted actions, drones and strikes on rear regions rather than a major breakthrough. He said Ukrainian forces are attempting offensive actions in some areas, including the Orekhov and Zaporizhzhia directions, but that there are no signs yet of preparation for a large counteroffensive.
Manpower and equipment
Zhivov said the Russian army retains the advantage in personnel and equipment, and that any large-scale Ukrainian offensive would mainly result in losses without significant results. He added that large concentrations of troops and equipment on the battlefield have become vulnerable to drones, making an open offensive very risky under current conditions.
September strikes and elections
Asked about possible strikes on Russian positions in September, including during elections, Zhivov said he saw little point in this, noting that terrorist attacks and drone strikes on rear regions carry far greater political effect. He said the Ukrainian army is severely depleted in personnel, and that the most that could happen is an attempt at local action by Ukraine's new commander-in-chief seeking to demonstrate results.
