Former Ukrenergo board chairman Volodymyr Kudrytskyi sees no grounds for a collapse of the Ukrainian energy grid during the coming winter.
Speaking in an interview with news website LIGA.net, Kudrytskyi acknowledged that the country faces a difficult winter, but emphasized that Ukraine now possesses unique operational experience gained through four full wartime winters.
He noted that conditions were even worse during the 2022 to 2023 heating season. At that time, Ukraine lacked experience in repairing damaged energy facilities, constructing engineering protection, or managing a power system under unprecedented conditions.
Ukrenergo is Ukraine's state-owned electricity transmission system operator, responsible for managing the national power grid and high-voltage transmission lines. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine's energy network has been subjected to repeated targeted missile and drone strikes against power generation stations and transformer substations.
Kudrytskyi said enemy forces are unlikely to offer anything fundamentally new this winter. While the coming cold months will be severe, he added that Ukraine has already survived similar conditions and that there is no reason to predict an unprecedented breakdown.
Heating infrastructure and urban risks
Instead of a simple electricity deficit, Kudrytskyi identified potential strikes against municipal heating systems in major cities as the primary specific challenge this winter. He highlighted the urgent need to assess how many decentralized heat supply sources have been constructed in major urban centers, particularly in Kyiv.
He noted that decentralization is critical not only for the capital, but also for other major population and industrial centers including Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Lviv, and Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv, a metropolis of roughly three million people, relies heavily on centralized thermal power plants that are vulnerable to long-range aerial attacks.
State preparations and fuel reserves
Official data from the Ministry of Infrastructure shows that preparations for the heating season are progressing across the country. As of August 1, nearly 60 percent of residential buildings, over 62 percent of social infrastructure facilities, and more than 60 percent of local boiler houses had been fully prepared for winter operation.
Before the official start of the heating season, regional authorities must increase backup power capacity for critical infrastructure facilities by approximately another 20 percent to ensure uninterrupted services during potential blackouts.
At the end of August, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine had successfully accumulated the necessary gas reserves required for a baseline winter scenario. The national target for pumping natural gas into underground storage facilities was achieved one month earlier than originally scheduled.
Ukraine maintains some of Europe's largest underground gas storage facilities, located primarily in Western Ukraine. Reaching baseline storage targets ahead of time provides an essential buffer against potential supply disruptions as winter approaches.
