Energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko told news agency UNIAN that Russia's energy system protection level is more vulnerable than Ukraine's. As far as he knows, Russian authorities are not preparing for major strikes and show little concern beyond bolstering air defense for Moscow and Saint Petersburg. He said the Kremlin ignores other regions, leaving residents in places like Voronezh to survive on their own if power fails.
Kharchenko urged observers not to exaggerate Russian losses from Ukrainian oil refinery strikes. He disputed claims that Russia has permanently lost up to 30 percent of its refining capacity. While losses may reach 30 percent immediately after a strike, he said capacity recovers to 25 percent within a week and 15 percent within two months as Russian engineers begin repairs right away.
Oil Refining and Production Impact
Sanctions make replacing certain high-tech equipment difficult, costly, and time-consuming for Russia. Kharchenko explained that Russia compensates for these equipment losses by lowering product quality and cutting overall refining volumes. He added that the logistics crisis in Russia has gradually calmed down compared to a month ago, making it essential for Ukraine to maintain or intensify refinery strikes.
Reduced refining capacity has forced both private and state oil companies of all sizes to cut crude oil production because they have nowhere to store excess oil. Kharchenko called this forced cut the best outcome because Russia cannot easily uncap closed wells later. However, he noted that current production cuts remain limited and are not yet large enough to significantly alter the outcome of the war.
Diplomatic Shift and War of Cities
Ukraine's expanding campaign of deep strikes against Russian military and energy infrastructure is altering the nature of the conflict. According to authors at The New Yorker, these attacks helped shift U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric on Ukraine to a more favorable tone. Analysts pointed to his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara as evidence of the change.
However, the ongoing war of cities continues to take a heavy toll on Ukraine. Intense Russian attacks made June one of the bloodiest months for civilians since the invasion began. Available data indicates that at least 293 people were killed in those attacks.
