The Royal Navy has increased patrols to monitor Russian military activity as US spy chiefs warn Vladimir Putin could order an attack on a Nato country within weeks. US officials fear Russia wants to test the alliance's resolve by mounting a small land incursion or launching cyber attacks across Eastern Europe between this autumn and 2029.
The warnings follow recent security incidents in Eastern and Central Europe. A Russian missile landed in Poland last week, while an explosive drone was found on Tuesday at Leipzig airport in Germany near a Ukrainian aircraft carrying weapons. Russia has denied responsibility for the German airport drone incident, which was foiled by a bus driver.
In response, Britain's Armed Forces have ordered heightened vigilance. Royal Navy crews spent 21 days in July on patrol monitoring Russian activity in coastal and North Atlantic waters.
Warnings of hybrid warfare
Retired rear admiral Mark Montgomery, director of US research institute The Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said military experts have been monitoring Russia's move towards hybrid warfare in Eastern Europe.
"They call it 'new generation warfare', which is a mix of explosive events, drone attacks, jamming events, cyber attacks, influence operations, disinformation and even weaponised migration," Montgomery said. He added that Russia is likely to use these tactics to send Nato a strong deterrent message to stop supporting Ukraine or to launch an even more aggressive attack.
Montgomery warned that a Russian land incursion into Eastern Europe or a Baltic state could be likely if hostilities in Ukraine cease and Europe becomes distracted. "I think there's a reasonable belief that that's true, and I'm glad the intelligence community is saying it out loud," he said.
Poland's deputy prime minister and foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski, speaking to the BBC yesterday, confirmed the US assessment. "We think Putin is pretty desperate and may do some kind of false flag provocation," Sikorski said. "He's not capable of launching an invasion of Nato, but something nasty is possible."
Sikorski added that Putin's attempts to weaken Nato have failed and instead strengthened the alliance's resolve. "We're spending hundreds of billions on defence that we wouldn't have done without Putin invading Ukraine," Sikorski said. "We need till the end of the decade to rearm, and then I'll be confident he won't dare attack."
Shadow fleet monitoring and missile strikes
Deployments by the Royal Navy to shadow Russian warships and submarines in British waters rose 25 per cent in the first seven months of this year compared to 2025, the Ministry of Defence revealed yesterday. Royal Marine commandos also intercepted and boarded a sanctioned shadow fleet oil tanker, Smyrtos, in the English Channel in June.
The UK is regarded as a leader in tackling the shadow fleet, having already sanctioned more than 500 vessels. A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: "By disrupting the shadow fleet, the UK and international partners are directly bearing down on the resources sustaining Russia's aggression in Ukraine and reducing its capacity to threaten security across Europe and beyond."
Meanwhile, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday that Kyiv had secured a deal with the US for monthly deliveries of Patriot air-defence missiles. The announcement came after Russian strikes earlier in the day killed three people, including a child, near Kyiv. Explosions occurred at three locations in the Boryspil district, where firefighters were called to tackle blazes.
