Fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin will deploy tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine are growing as diplomatic hopes crumble and frustration mounts inside the Kremlin over battlefield developments.
Voices in Moscow calling for the use of nuclear warheads are becoming louder, and Putin is currently surveying his options for military escalation, according to sources familiar with the situation.
Ukraine and Russia have both ramped up attacks against each other in recent months, with Kyiv landing significant strikes deep inside Russian territory targeting oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, bilateral negotiations have all but collapsed, leaving little hope on either side of finding a peace deal.
The Kremlin remains adamant that it will not end the war under pressure from Western sanctions or Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. Russian officials are also increasingly indignant at NATO allies supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, leading to threats against the UK that British Prime Minister Andy Burnham this week branded "outrageous."
Three Kremlin sources told Bloomberg that Putin has concluded he needs to intensify attacks on Ukraine. Speaking to a reporter over the weekend, Putin said Ukraine had "opened this Pandora’s box" and warned Kyiv: "Be ready to get a blowback on your most sensitive sectors of the economy."
Russian missile strategy and nuclear threshold
For now, Moscow is considering how it can ramp up its conventional ballistic assaults, including missile attacks targeting the centre of the capital, Kyiv. However, a growing number of Russian officials have concluded that Putin could eventually abandon the rules of modern warfare and hit the nuclear button, sources said.
If Russia were to deploy a nuclear weapon, analysts and sources indicate it would likely be a tactical nuclear weapon rather than a strategic missile. Tactical nuclear weapons possess smaller yields and shorter ranges than strategic missiles. They are designed for use on a specific battlefield to gain tactical advantage, rather than to decimate entire cities like the atomic bombs dropped by the United States on Japan in 1945.
Throughout the conflict, Putin has repeatedly flaunted the threat of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and its Western allies, at one point publishing maps showing strike zones. Sources noted that if the Russian leader made the call to deploy nuclear arms, nobody in Moscow would stand in his way.
Warnings over Arctic missile tests
Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as a national security advisor to three US presidents including Donald Trump during his first term, warned of Putin's persistence. "For Putin there is no sign of collective will anywhere to resist him and so many ways in which he can grind people down," Hill said. "This is why a concerted collective and consistent effort to resist his actions, and to engage in diplomacy, is essential. He has a single-minded focus and we are all over the place."
Reports emerged this week that Putin might be about to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile, dubbed the "Flying Chernobyl" by analysts, which can fly for days at a time. An influx of aircraft and shipping has converged in the Arctic in a telltale sign that a new test firing is expected of a weapon powered by its own atomic reactor, according to analysts.
The weapon, officially named the Burevestnik missile, carries a nuclear warhead with an unlimited range and is designed to fly for days before striking the West, according to Russian claims. Its nickname reflects the potential nuclear catastrophe associated with an accident involving an airborne atomic reactor, evoking the 1986 Chernobyl power plant explosion in Soviet Ukraine.
Stalled diplomacy and international talks
While analysts consider the prospect of nuclear deployment remote, a swift diplomatic end to the war remains the only way to eliminate the threat entirely, a scenario that now appears out of reach. American diplomatic focus has been diverted as the United States remains preoccupied with the conflict in Iran.
Putin has also abandoned hope of an understanding between former US President Donald Trump and himself that was fostered during their summit in Alaska last August. Russia has indicated there may be a path to peace if Ukraine hands over its "fortress belt" of cities in the Donbas region that have held firm since armed hostilities began in 2014, but Kyiv has made clear that surrendering the territory is not on the table.
Reflecting on the stalled negotiations, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in June: "If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war." In a rare diplomatic move, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a visit to Moscow on Tuesday for a high-level meeting, though the precise focus of the discussions remains unclear.
