School dropout rates in the Community of Madrid match statistical expectations set by earlier student performance in international PISA examinations, according to a study by Funcas researcher Ismael Sanz.
The study found that Madrid, which generally performs well in PISA assessments, shows dropout levels aligned with its 15-year-old academic scores in reading, science, and mathematics. Madrid does not lose more students than predicted by its early performance, but it also fails to retain or qualify significantly more than expected.
Academic performance at age 15, as evaluated by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), offers crucial indicators for long-term educational outcomes. Sanz noted that PISA scores provide a clear baseline to anticipate future levels of school leaving and qualification gaps years down the line.
Funcas is a Spanish social and economic research foundation based in Madrid. PISA, conducted globally by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), evaluates key competencies in reading, mathematics, and science among secondary school students.
Regional differences in student retention
While Madrid aligned strictly with statistical forecasts, several Spanish autonomous communities managed to retain far more young people in education than their early test scores predicted. The Basque Country recorded an early school leaving rate between eight and 10 percentage points below its expected forecast.
Cantabria achieved a dropout rate roughly three percentage points below its predicted level, while Navarra placed approximately two percentage points below its expectation. Both regions succeeded in guiding a higher proportion of students through to official graduation than their age-15 performance indicated.
Spain is administratively divided into 17 autonomous communities, each possessing broad powers to manage local education policies, school curricula, and classroom progression frameworks within national guidelines.
Flexible promotion and grade repetition
Sanz suggested that more flexible promotion policies and reduced grade repetition may explain the strong retention in northern regions. He posited that students who might repeat a year or drop out elsewhere are enabled to progress, complete compulsory secondary education, and enter intermediate vocational training or high school tracks in the Basque Country, Cantabria, and Navarra.
Sanz pointed out a potential trade-off, noting that keeping struggling students in class rather than requiring them to repeat grades reduces dropout rates but could pull down average PISA scores. The Basque Country represents a striking example, maintaining Spain's lowest dropout rate despite showing PISA performance close to the national average.
In the Spanish education system, compulsory secondary education culminates in the ESO diploma. Students who complete ESO can transition either into Bachillerato, a two-year academic track preparing for university, or FP Media, which offers intermediate vocational training.
High exam scores versus lower completion
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Castile and Leon presented one of the report's most striking outcomes. Despite achieving some of Spain's highest PISA scores at age 15, 23.5% of its residents aged 25 to 34 in 2025 had not attained upper secondary education, a figure far higher than expected.
Sanz identified several other autonomous communities where the proportion of young adults without secondary qualifications exceeded forecasts. These included La Rioja, the Balearic Islands, Aragon, Andalusia, and Murcia.
Tracking student outcomes across cohorts
To reach his conclusions, Sanz conducted two separate cross-analyses linking historical exam data with 2025 population statistics. The first comparison matched PISA 2012 results against the proportion of 25-to-34-year-olds without upper secondary diplomas in 2025, tracking students who were 15 in 2012 and are now 28 to 29 years old.
The second analysis compared PISA 2015 scores against early school leaving rates among young people aged 18 to 24 in 2025. Together, the two datasets demonstrated how early academic evaluation correlates with long-term educational attainment across Spain's regions.
