Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a numerical lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the 2026 presidential race, according to a new poll.
Data from the primary stimulated first-round scenario released on Thursday, September 24, by polling institute Real Time Big Data shows Lula with 41 percent of voting intentions. Flavio Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party, registered 37 percent support.
A substantial distance behind the two frontrunners, author Augusto Cury of the Avante party and Renan Santos of the Missao party are tied with 6 percent each. Former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party registered 2 percent, while former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema of the Novo party received 1 percent.
A group of seven additional candidates tested in the survey collectively accounted for 1 percent of voter preferences. That roster includes Clariana Barao of Christian Democracy, Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers' Cause Party, Samara of Popular Unity, Edmilson Costa of the Brazilian Communist Party, Hertz Dias of the Unified Workers' Socialist Party, Wilson Grassi of the Democratas, and Leonardo Avalanche of the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party.
Electors planning to cast blank or spoiled ballots represented 3 percent of respondents, matching the 3 percent of participants who stated that they did not know or declined to answer.
Survey methodology and registration
Real Time Big Data surveyed 2,000 eligible voters between September 19 and September 23, 2026. The research firm gathered data through telephone interviews combined with digital recruitment. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points upward or downward, alongside a 95 percent statistical confidence level.
The research was financed entirely with Real Time Big Data's own internal funds rather than external commissioning. The poll is formally registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, under the official protocol identifier BR-04202/2026, satisfying legal requirements for publishing public opinion surveys during election cycles.
Political background and two-round election rules
Lula, the long-time leader of the left-wing Workers' Party, is serving his third term as president of Brazil after previous administrations between 2003 and 2010. Flavio Bolsonaro is a federal senator representing Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, serving as a primary standard-bearer for the right-wing Liberal Party.
Under the Brazilian electoral framework, presidential contests are structured around a two-round system. A candidate must secure more than 50 percent of all valid ballots in the first round to win the presidency outright, leaving blank and null votes out of the final tally.
If no single presidential aspirant achieves an outright majority during the opening round of balloting, the top two finishers advance to a decisive second-round runoff election. The early polling from Real Time Big Data reflects voter preferences across the broader field of candidates before any such potential head-to-head confrontation.
