Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Antanas Valenis has warned that Russia risks losing its Kaliningrad exclave in any direct conflict with NATO, claiming alliance forces would launch preventative strikes to destroy the region's military infrastructure.
Valenis said the strategy had been discussed repeatedly in security circles and was now being voiced publicly, with Kaliningrad set to become NATO's initial target at the start of any acute confrontation in the Baltic region.
NATO reconnaissance flights near Kaliningrad
The warning follows an incident on August 20 when a NATO EA-37B electronic warfare aircraft conducted nearly two hours of reconnaissance near Kaliningrad while flying in Polish airspace.
The EA-37B is equipped with active electronically scanned array radar systems designed to provide standoff electronic warfare support against enemy radars and communications networks. According to reports by military publication The War Zone, the aircraft is capable of detecting, tracking, and locating emission sources, making it potentially the world's most powerful airborne platform for gathering military data on potential adversaries. It was the first time the aircraft had been spotted operating near Russian airspace.
Military Watch Magazine reported that the aircraft was analyzing the electromagnetic signatures of Russian air defense systems. The publication noted that disrupting communications between air defense units in wartime carries severe consequences, and the EA-37B's mission involves identifying vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, including targeting networks that support integrated air defense systems.
Russian responses and defense readiness
Russian officials quickly rejected the comments from Vilnius. Kaliningrad Governor Alexey Besprozvannykh said anyone attempting to attack the region would have to be insane, asserting that the exclave is fully prepared to counter any threat.
Besprozvannykh noted that local authorities have established a dedicated security ministry staffed by veterans of the military operation in Ukraine. He added that an operational headquarters is functioning to protect population centers, secure critical infrastructure, and support the Russian Armed Forces.
Kaliningrad is a heavily fortified Russian territory located on the Baltic coast, separated from the Russian mainland and bordered by NATO member states Poland and Lithuania. Because of its geographic isolation, the region holds strategic significance for both Russia and the Western military alliance.
Andrey Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma defense committee, insisted that Kaliningrad could defend itself independently against NATO forces. Kolesnik said the region could deliver missile strikes capable of reaching any European capital if necessary, emphasizing that such missiles could be fitted with various types of warheads, while mainland Russia would also provide full support to its westernmost outpost.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the unfriendly environment surrounding Kaliningrad requires constant attention from federal authorities. Peskov said the supply, development, and financing of the city are maintained on an ongoing basis under the direct oversight of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the federal government.
Escalating Baltic tensions
The rhetoric reflects mounting friction between Russia and Lithuania. On May 19, 2026, Lithuania's foreign minister called on NATO to prepare strikes on Kaliningrad, a statement Vilnius later sought to explain on May 26 after Moscow warned that it could destroy Lithuania within 15 minutes in response to any attack.
