Scientists from ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel have launched an interactive map that reveals the fate of every single glacier on Earth under different climate change scenarios.
The digital tool, named the Global Glacier Extinction Explorer, warns that nearly half of today's glaciers could disappear by 2100 if global warming remains at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
"Global numbers such as glacier mass or area loss can feel very abstract," said Dr Lander Van Tricht, a researcher involved in the project. "With this website, people can zoom into their own valley or mountain region and see what different levels of global warming could mean for the glaciers they know."
Glacier extinction mapping features
To explore the fate of Earth's glaciers on the platform, users can select specific warming scenarios in a control panel, with options for 1.5C, 2C, 2.7C, or 4C of warming.
The colour of the dots across the interactive display indicates each glacier's projected fate. Dark red shows that a glacier is already extinct, while orange suggests it will become extinct between 2027 and 2041. A light blue dot suggests the glacier is one of the few to survive through 2100.
Alternatively, visitors can hover over a glacier dot for a quick summary, or click it to explore its full profile, including area, elevation range, and projected extinction timing across different scenarios. ETH Zurich, a public research university in Switzerland, developed the underlying data alongside Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium.
Temperature scenarios and loss projections
The interactive tool is based on 2024 projections by researchers at ETH Zurich, which estimated when and where glaciers around the world could disappear.
The projections suggest that, under 1.5C of global warming, around 2,000 glaciers could disappear every year. By 2100, that rate of loss would leave just half of today's glaciers standing.
Meanwhile, if global temperatures rise by 2.7C, only 20 per cent of glaciers would remain, while 4C of warming would leave just 10 per cent of glaciers standing.
"Every fraction of a degree matters," Dr Van Tricht said. "Limiting warming to 1.5C could preserve more than twice as many glaciers as a 2.7C trajectory by 2100."
Role of glaciers in global freshwater systems
A glacier is a large, persistent mass of dense ice formed over centuries from compressed snow. It moves slowly downhill under its own weight, acting as a river of ice that erodes surrounding landscapes.
Glaciers are found in cold regions and high altitudes, covering about 10 per cent of Earth's land area and serving as a vital freshwater source for downstream communities and ecosystems.
Recent Alpine ice loss and recorded extinctions
While 2100 still feels far away, 2026 has already proved to be a bad year for glaciers. A combination of low winter snow and several summer heatwaves has resulted in substantial ice loss across the European Alps, according to researchers.
They highlight Bella Tola Glacier near Saint-Luc in Switzerland, which was declared extinct last month, an outcome that was predicted by the 2024 study. In addition, Urirotstock Glacier, one of Switzerland's smallest glaciers, was also declared extinct this summer.
"These examples make the concept of glacier extinction very concrete," Dr Van Tricht said. "Our projections showed that many small Alpine glaciers are approaching the end of their lives, and we are now witnessing this process in real time."
"Bella Tola is particularly striking, as its observed disappearance falls directly within the extinction window projected by our models," Dr Van Tricht added.
Sea level rise and environmental consequences
While the researchers did not look at the broad consequences of such glacier loss in their map, a study last month warned how their demise could spark devastating sea level rise.
Researchers from Ca' Foscari University of Venice estimate that glaciers outside the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica contain around 150,000 cubic kilometres of ice. If every one of these glaciers melted completely, it would raise global sea levels by more than 12 inches, or 32.3 centimetres.
"Behind every disappearing glacier is a place, a history and often a community that will experience its absence," Dr Van Tricht said. "The fact that some of the glaciers projected to disappear in our study are already vanishing today shows that glacier extinction is not a distant, end-of-century problem. It is happening now."
