China is preparing to launch its Chang'e-7 robotic mission as early as this month, accelerating a global competition with the United States to secure strategic territory at the lunar south pole.
The lunar south pole has become the primary target for both nations because scientists believe the region contains substantial deposits of water ice. The critical resource can be processed into rocket fuel, breathable oxygen, and drinking water to sustain long-term human settlements.
Beijing's Chang'e-7 project will deploy four distinct robotic vehicles working in tandem: an orbiter, a lander, a rover, and a mobile hopper vehicle. The spacecraft carry specialized instruments to drill directly into lunar ice, a technical capability the United States will not attempt with robotic missions until next year at the earliest.
Tang Yuhua, deputy project chief of the Chang'e-7 mission, said in a 2025 state media interview that locating water ice could significantly reduce the cost and time required to transport water from Earth, facilitating the establishment of a human base for long-term lunar operations and enabling future exploration of Mars and deep space.
The American effort relies on private industry, with NASA funding Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic Technology to send its Griffin lander to the south pole in late 2026. The mission aims to overcome setbacks from two previous landers built by another American firm that struggled on the treacherous polar terrain.
Over the past five years, China has launched its Tiangong space station, an orbital laboratory rivaling the International Space Station, and successfully retrieved soil samples from the far side of the Moon. Beijing's target to establish a permanent lunar settlement by 2040 has prompted US lawmakers to declare a new space race and commit NASA to constructing an American outpost.
Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the long-term vision will take generations to realize, describing a scenario where families are born and raised in a setting that resembles a city rather than an expedition. He added that he hopes such colonies will be governed by Western democratic principles, though it remains uncertain whether China shares that vision.
China's lunar strategy and cultural vision
China's aerospace ambitions are driven from the top leadership in Beijing. Chinese leader Xi Jinping described turning the country into a space power as an eternal dream during a 2020 speech, framing space progress as part of his broader vision for national rejuvenation and global prominence in science and technology.
The lunar exploration program takes its name from Chang'e, the ancient Chinese moon goddess celebrated annually during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist of the lunar program, stated in 2015 that the program represents both scientific goals and a thousands-year-old cultural dream of the Chinese nation.
China has expanded its focus beyond robotics with the goal of becoming the second nation to land humans on the Moon. Space agency spokesperson Zhang Jingbo stated in May that China will spare no effort to achieve its first crewed moon landing by 2030.
No human has walked on the Moon since NASA's Apollo program concluded in 1972 after 12 astronauts retrieved 385 kilograms of lunar rocks. While China's overall space budget remains secret, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told CNN that the lack of transparency is a challenge, though he expects Chinese taikonauts to be the next humans on the lunar surface.
NASA currently proposes landing astronauts on the Moon by 2028, but engineering hurdles have created expectations of further delays. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman told CNN that China is a major competitor across all areas, noting that Beijing will likely accomplish what the Soviet Union failed to do, while expressing confidence that the US will meet its 2028 deadline.
Engineering challenges facing US lunar landers
The United States demonstrated progress in April when four astronauts flew around the Moon aboard the Artemis II mission. However, NASA does not currently possess a lander vehicle capable of carrying astronauts to the lunar surface, as original Apollo manufacturing supply chains no longer exist and polar landings require far more powerful spacecraft.
Casey Dreier, chief of space policy at The Planetary Society, noted that NASA is not funded at Cold War race levels, leaving the agency vulnerable to shifting presidential priorities and budget uncertainties. NASA has turned to commercial partners SpaceX and Blue Origin to develop new human landing systems.
The two companies hope to test prototype landers in low Earth orbit during the Artemis III mission next year by practicing docking maneuvers with NASA's Orion crew capsule. A Blue Origin spokesperson pointed to a June statement by senior vice president John Couluris, who said the company is making strong progress following a recent incident and expects to have its Blue Moon craft ready for next year's test.
Both SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's Blue Moon landers face a formidable engineering challenge before attempting a lunar landing. Each vehicle will require orbital refueling in Earth orbit, transferring tons of supercooled cryogenic propellant between mated spacecraft in space, a maneuver never before attempted in history.
Streamlined rockets and long-term lunar bases
In contrast to the complex US architecture, China has pursued a centralized vertical planning strategy since 2004 that relies on a streamlined launch plan. Beijing intends to land taikonauts on the Moon using just two rocket launches: one for the astronaut capsule and another for the Lanyue lunar lander, which will dock in orbit without requiring space refueling.
China demonstrated navigation, propulsion, and sensor capabilities during ground tests in August 2025. In February, the country completed a key test flight using its Long March 10 lunar rocket and the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft.
Patrick Besha, a former NASA strategic advisor and Chinese space program expert who was dismissed from the Department of Government Efficiency last year, said China's technological path toward a 2030 landing appears more direct than that of the US, adding that remaining hurdles are manageable engineering problems.
Beyond initial landings, China is collaborating with international partners to construct the International Lunar Research Station, an extensive surface facility designed for initial robotic operation and future human presence. China lunar program chief designer Wu Weiren told Reuters in 2025 that Russia offers a natural advantage in space nuclear power to supply the base, drawing on Soviet-era experience of launching more than 30 reactor-powered satellites compared to just one by the US.
Legal disputes and space resource rights
The competing lunar ambitions have exposed unresolved questions in international space law. The United States established the 2020 Artemis Accords, joined by 70 countries, to permit resource extraction and establish safety zones around lunar activities, but China and allies including Russia, Pakistan, Belarus, and Egypt have declined to sign.
American commercial entities are preparing plans to extract valuable lunar materials such as helium-3, an isotope rare on Earth that could be used in quantum computing and nuclear fusion. However, legal scholars point to a disconnect in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits national appropriation of celestial bodies while leaving the ownership of extracted materials open to interpretation.
Chinese researchers have also indicated interest in lunar resource extraction. Guo Hongfeng of the National Astronomical Observatories highlighted the Moon's rich deposits of titanium, silicon, aluminum, and helium-3, while Ouyang Ziyuan told the BBC in 2013 that lunar resources could be used without limitations. Besha noted that while China officially supports the 1967 treaty, Beijing appears willing to test its legal boundaries.
Geopolitical tensions and the future of space cooperation
Growing national rivalry has severely restricted direct cooperation between the two space powers. Citing concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft, US export regulations including the 2011 Wolf Amendment and ITAR rules limit NASA collaboration with Chinese counterparts, while the US banned Chinese visa holders from NASA facilities last year.
Despite current restrictions, experts suggest long-term separation may prove unsustainable. Swope and Besha noted that Cold War competition between the US and the Soviet Union eventually led to joint cooperation on the International Space Station, raising questions about whether Washington and Beijing will eventually coordinate to resolve shared global risks such as space debris and asteroid detection.
