Ukraine's alternative routes for exporting grain will not reach the capacity needed before the end of August, and even then will cover only half of the volume that once moved through the Black Sea ports of Greater Odesa, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said. He made the comments in an interview with Reuters.
Vysotskyi warned that more than 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian produce will not reach international markets if the problem is not solved.
Russian attacks on Black Sea ports
Russia attacked ships in Ukrainian ports 35 times in July and struck vessels at sea another 22 times, along with 67 strikes on port infrastructure, according to Vysotskyi. By comparison, only 14 attacks on ships were recorded in the whole of 2025.
As a result, shipowners have suspended calls to ports in the Odesa region, just as Ukraine's harvest is picking up pace.
Falling prices and mounting losses
Vysotskyi said Ukrainian producers are already feeling the impact, with prices for grain and oilseed crops down by an average of 30%.
He described the situation as extremely difficult, saying that by some measures it is even harder than in March and April of 2022. He estimated that direct losses to Ukraine's agricultural sector this year could range between $1.5 billion and $3 billion.
Danube, rail and road as alternatives
The main alternative routes remaining for Ukraine are shipments along the Danube River, plus rail and road transport, Vysotskyi said. The Danube is unlikely to play a significant role until October because of low water levels.
He said rail and road routes could reach a more or less stable operating level at the earliest by the end of summer. Even then, they would provide only 50 to 55% of the monthly capacity of the Black Sea ports, which stands at around 6 million tonnes.
Vysotskyi said this means the alternative routes can only be a temporary fix rather than a long-term substitute for sea exports. Using them also raises producers' costs by $45 to $50 per tonne at current prices.
Global food security concerns
Vysotskyi said that if Russia blocks the ports for an extended period, it could cause a sharp rise in global food prices, affecting consumers around the world.
He said there is no alternative to the Odesa ports if Ukraine is to remain a guarantor of global food security. Greater Odesa's deep-water ports have long served as Ukraine's main gateway for shipping grain and oilseed crops to international buyers.
Grain association's outlook
The Ukrainian Grain Association forecast on July 30 that, thanks to a good harvest, exports of grain and oilseed crops in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach nearly 52 million tonnes, up from 41.1 million tonnes exported in the previous season. The association said that optimistic scenario is possible only if Ukraine's logistics problems are resolved and the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa fully resume operations.
No vessel has entered Ukraine's sea ports since July 21, and authorities have begun discussing the renewal of so-called "solidarity lanes" for moving Ukrainian agricultural exports.
