Why is tension growing over Taiwan?

The tension has been accentuated in recent weeks on Taiwan, an autonomous democracy claimed by China and ally of USA.

Experts wonder how far that tension will go and what the United States’ response will be.

What positions do the parties have?

China’s communist government considers Taiwan a rogue province and hopes to win it back, even by force if necessary.

The Nationalist Party of China (Kuomintang) fled to the island in 1949 after losing the civil war on the mainland. Since then, the island of 24 million inhabitants has been transformed into a democracy and a great technological pole, reinforcing its own identity.

In 1979, the United States stopped recognizing Taipei and instead recognized Beijing after concluding that the Kuomintang would never return to power in mainland China, which was gaining strength as a world power and rival to Washington.

Congress in 1979 demanded that the United States government provide arms to Taiwan for its self-defense. However, Washington was deliberately ambiguous about whether it would defend Taiwan in an eventual invasion.

Why is there more tension?

President Xi Jinping has affirmed Chinese nationalism and, following protests in Hong Kong, drastically cracked down on freedoms in that financial center, which had been promised autonomy from Beijing before Britain left that colony in 1997.

“Beijing’s dramatic demolition of that model in Hong Kong had a significant impact on the attitudes of many in Taiwan, even among those who previously might have favored closer cultural or economic ties,” said Carl Minzner, researcher. of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Last year Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen easily won re-election in what was a highly divided population.

In recent years, China sharply increased its military activities with a record number of planes making forays near the island earlier this month.

What is China’s goal?

In the United States, concern has grown over the possibility that Beijing is preparing an invasion of Taiwan, which, for some experts, is an exaggerated fear.

“In the last year, there has been a recognition that the Chinese military has already achieved, or is very close to achieving, the ability to invade and control Taiwan,” said Bonnie Glaser, Asia Director of the US German Marshall Fund. “For a long time that was considered a real factor,” he recalled.

He mentioned disturbing situations such as mock bombardments of Taiwanese ports or landings.

Glaser, however, is among those who doubt that China has a timetable for an invasion. Taiwan is the only problem that could lead the United States and China to war, which, in turn, could potentially escalate to the nuclear level.

“Having a military confrontation with the United States is something China has tried to avoid for years,” according to Glasser.

In that eventual war, Xi “would jeopardize all the other goals he has for his country,” he added.

“China’s goal, I think, is to instill despair in the people of Taiwan so that they turn themselves in and say, well, we should give in to Beijing and be part of China. So, (the Chinese) want to win without shedding blood ”, he estimated.

What will the US do?

Numerous commentators, especially Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, called on the United States to end its “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan and instead tell China that Washington will intervene in the event of an invasion.

For others, that position will backfire with Chinese leaders already convinced that the United States is supporting Taiwan’s pro-independence forces despite repeatedly claiming that it only recognizes Beijing.

President Joe Biden received warnings from China last week when he said the United States would defend Taiwan, though the White House later said that did not mean a policy change.

For now, Washington appears to be looking to take cautious steps in support of Taiwan to avoid creating a crisis. These steps include promoting the inclusion of Taiwan in international institutions.

The president of Taiwan showed confidence in an interview with CNN this week. Asked if the United States would defend the island, she replied “I have faith.”