Can China give military aid to Russia?

The United States says that Russia has asked China for military help for its war in Ukraine and that China has responded in the affirmative. Moscow and Beijing have denied this, with a Chinese spokesman calling the allegation “disinformation.”

However, the complaints have generated speculation about how far he would be willing to go. Beijing in support of his “most important strategic partner”in recent words of the Chinese foreign minister.

What did the United States say?

After initial reports that Russia asked for military help Chinaanonymous US officials said that Washington determined that China had sent a signal to Russia: Beijing would be willing to provide military support to the Ukraine campaign and financial aid to help mitigate the impact of Western-imposed sanctions.

In a meeting in Rome on Monday, the adviser of United States National Security, Jake Sullivanwarned senior Chinese foreign policy adviser yang jiechi that China should not provide such support, while the Kremlin denied having requested supplies.

The United States is suspicious of Chinese intentions because the president’s government Xi Jinping He has refused to criticize the Russian invasion, although he seeks to distance himself from the war with calls for dialogue and by reiterating his position that a nation’s territory must be respected.

What could China offer?

It is more likely to offer bullets and prepared meals than fighter-bombers and tanks, according to experts.

China “probably wants to avoid high-profile arms sales to Russia in the midst of a conflict that would expose Beijing to international sanctions”said Drew Thompsonformer official of Defense Department American and now a professor at the Lee Kuan Yew Faculty from Public Policies in Singapore.

Beijing would be more willing to send spare parts, food, ammunition and dual-use items that do not contravene sanctions and would not merit international retaliation, he said.

For example, Russian helicopters are probably running out of flares to counter short-range man-portable Stinger missiles. China could sell flares to Russia, if they are compatible with Russian launchers, and could help with surveillance and intelligence, Thompson said.

Given the caveats of Washingtonthe Chinese aid would probably consist of “very basic things”such as rations for soldiers, said st rogeveendirector of the international security program at the Lowy Institute from Australia.

He added that it would be almost impossible for Russia to integrate Chinese weapons into its armed forces in such a short time.

Would China do it?

Although it is not impossible, both Chinese and foreign experts say that there are several factors that advise against it. For starters, it would create a bad image.

“China will be very careful to do everything possible to prevent its aid from being used on the battlefields of Ukraine”I consider Shi Yinghongprofessor of international relations at the Renmin University in Beijing.

He added that China “has no reason to give aid to Russia’s operation in Ukraine”.

Roggeveen agrees: aid to Moscow has no “obvious advantages” for Chinese. He noted that weakening Russia would give China strategic and economic advantages.

Throughout the crisis, Chinese officials have said that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries must be respected. His detractors say that the refusal to criticize the Russian invasion contradicts that position.

“Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has by its nature become an invasion, and China will never help a country to attack another sovereign country with weapons, and that is not in accordance with international law.”said li xindirector of Institute of European and Asian Studies on the University of Political Science and Law from Shanghai.

China does not want the conflict to escalate or be dragged down as a co-belligerent, so any Chinese support “it would be carefully measured and calibrated”Thompson stressed.