Ukraine helps Europe to break some taboos

By Lionel Laurent

The yellow and blue of the Ukrainian flag, which was banned during the Soviet era, has become a powerful global symbol after the Russian invasion. It has flown in iconic locations from New York to Sarajevo, has been shared on social media and waved during anti-war protests around the world.

It has also done much to unite members of the European Union and the NATO alliance, in a welcome moment of geopolitical solidarity after a pandemic has hardened borders and national interests.

Sanctions are piling up against Russia, refugees are being welcomed into different countries, business and political ties are crumbling, and financial and military support for Ukraine is advancing.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presses Europe to be more assertive, Russian President Vladimir Putin is stirring up the kind of fear that breaks long-standing taboos. The EU is supplying arms to a country at war for the first time in its history, using a financial endowment whose name, the “Peace Facility”, says it all.

It is not often that safety takes precedence over economic convenience. The bloc is waking up to a new normal of “permanent instability”, according to Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund.

And as the European balance of power tilts to the East, where Baltic states feel emboldened after years of warning of Putin’s belligerence but are also vulnerable to conflict on their doorstep, Kiev reiterates demands for the prize. end: membership in the EU club.

Tired of politely knocking on the door, Zelensky is kicking it. “Europe must give Ukraine everything it asks for”, the Latvian defense minister wrote in a Financial Times op-ed, citing Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and also NATO.

Obviously, if there is a time to dream big, it is now. It is perhaps easier to envision the EU flag one day waving alongside Ukraine’s than NATO’s, which a former alliance secretary-general described as a terrifying scenario. Some token acknowledgment of Kiev’s European aspirations would be a worthy complement to more funding and deeper ties, especially if diplomatic pressure on Putin mounts.

But in the midst of idealism, there still has to be realism: not all taboos are going to be broken.

EU enlargement is not just red tape, but a preciously guarded power that has been as divisive an issue as defence, especially after the UK’s departure and concerns about democratic backsliding in the East. Ukraine’s 43 million citizens and commodity-centric economy would take years, if not decades, to integrate.

Even as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen touted that Ukraine was “one of us”, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, warned about the “different” opinions on the subject.

Nor is it obvious that the Europeans have fully resolved what kind of defense they want. There has been a lack of political will, concrete budget commitments and an inability by 27 countries to define their most pressing threats. The EU mechanism financing arms for Ukraine is an extra-budgetary intergovernmental tool that will not require any internal pressure. We are still at the easiest point of change: the beginning.

Even without a comprehensive view of defense, further spending seems inevitable. Defense stocks are rising, with BAE Systems and Thales up around 25% this month, and reaching the symbolic level of 2% of GDP would see Germany alone spend an additional $18bn, according to analysts at Jefferies. Even if Julien Theron of Sciences Po points out that the 2% figure is more symbolic than fulfillment of NATO’s wish list, an awakening is taking place.

And the EU’s willingness to confront its trade and energy ties with Russia is an important signal for a union with global dependencies that leave it vulnerable: the recent launch of a screening tool to monitor foreign investment from powers like China is slowly gaining ground. ground.

Ultimately, governments and voters will set the real limits for a more assertive EU. What seems unifying today may create the opposite result tomorrow. The image of US troops leaving Afghanistan in a chaotic manner, or French troops leaving Mali, are visible signs that an initially popular and necessary military response may lose support over time. The EU has not yet felt the full economic burden of the sanctions.

Encouragingly, however, the EU’s power play is seen and not just heard: a more assertive bloc willing to invest in defense with US support, confront economic dependencies that make it vulnerable, and find common ground. among its members. It’s an idealistic flag, but one worth raising.