Is Putin afraid of restrictions? Expert: The Russian president did not expect such a reaction

Within a dozen or so hours, the situation with Ukraine changed significantly. Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of two separatist “republics” in the east of the country. Moscow also sent troops to the occupied regions, contrary to international law.

Russia’s decisions have met with a reaction from the West. Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, announced the suspension of the approval for use of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, announced restrictions on three people associated with Gazprom and five Russian banks. The European Union will present its tightening package on Tuesday afternoon. According to unofficial findings of the Polish Radio correspondent, 350 people associated with the Russian regime are to be included in the “black list”. However, Putin is not among them.

Is it afraid of Western sanctions? How painful can they be for the local economy? Iwona Wiśniewska from the Center for Eastern Studies in an interview with Gazeta.pl commented on potential sanctions that the West may impose on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. According to the expert, Putin will certainly get a response from the West, but it is not known what the scale of the pressure will be.

The West is like Russia. Expert: Every sanction hurts

– It is rather difficult to expect that a complete list of sanctions in the event of a mass invasion will be introduced. The reaction of individual states may differ – the readiness of the USA to impose sanctions is certainly greater than that of the EU countries. We will find out what package of restrictions the EU will propose on Tuesday afternoon. We already know that Germany has suspended the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is directly hitting Putin. The president of Russia did not expect such a reaction from Germany. It is possible that further steps will be agreed with the United States, says the expert.

The Gazeta.pl interlocutor stated that no matter what steps Western countries decide to take, it will have an impact on the Russian economy. – Every sanction hurts. The fact that they do not lead to an economic meltdown does not mean that they are not painful, she explained.

Expert: Russia has been preparing for Western sanctions for seven years

According to Iwona Wiśniewska, Russia’s earlier decisions showed that it was preparing for a confrontation.

– The Russian government has spent the last seven years preparing, economically securing Russia in the event of sanctions. This is evidenced by high government and currency reserves, small foreign debt, a reduced share of the US dollar in settlements, and reduced dependence on imports, which has reduced the dependence of the entire Russian economy on foreign countries, the expert explained.

In her opinion, Poland’s eastern neighbor benefits from high prices of raw materials, which is the main protection against the effects of the restrictions. – Has a steady flow of currencies. Russia, however, is very closely related to the world economy. So much so that sanctions, e.g. against the mining sector or banks, would be very felt in Russia. What London, in turn, announced, i.e. sanctions against Russian oligarchs, is disrupting the Russian elite. Because she herself will feel the negative effects of Putin’s decision.

According to the expert, the sanctions may accelerate the process of degradation of the Russian economy and increase the distance to the leaders of the world economy.

Analyst: Russia is confident in its position

Iwona Wiśniewska explains the approach of the Russian authorities with the position of Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president. During Monday’s deliberations, he assured that the West would introduce some sanctions, but in the long run it would withdraw from them and sit down with Russia and return to common interests.

– Russia is convinced that its importance for the EU economy, dependence on its raw materials, is so strong that Western countries will have to come to terms with what Russia is doing. But President Putin is precisely the leader who can modify the way Western countries think. And change their approach to the Kremlin. The decision of Chancellor Scholz regarding NS2 can be a demonstration of this.

Something else may be of importance to the West. Putin’s behavior that reveals that he is trying to play European politicians. – If Scholz and Macron visit Moscow, make calls and convince them that there is no invasion, and Putin fakes talks, although he has already made the decision, this is a clear signal for politicians. Putin cannot be trusted.

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Germany has suspended the certification of the gas pipeline that is to supply gas from Russia. This does not mean the end of the Nord Stream 2 project yet, but it is a serious warning for Moscow as its conflict with Kiev intensifies. European energy is (still) strongly tied to Russia. What do Russia’s aggressive actions mean for the energy sector in Europe? What is to be reckoned with, what to fear, and how should the West react? Feel free to send your questions to:, we will ask them to an expert next Thursday in the Q&A program.