The extreme right gains strength, power and influence in Europe. The feared reactionary wave that threatened the viability of the welfare state, as well as the socioeconomic reforms on which millions and millions of people across the continent depend, has finally become a reality: Le Penfrom France; Melonifrom Italy; Chrupalla and Weidelfrom Germany; Abascal (and even the far-right agitator alvise), from Spain. Starting this Sunday, the EU faces an unprecedented scenario: that of one’s own survival -in its most democratic sense- giving more prominence to Eurosceptic or directly Europhobic leaders, and linked, in some cases, to philo-fascist groups.

In front are moderates and traditional conservatives, de facto winners in these June 9 elections in terms of numbers. But not in terms of those sums necessary to deal with all the crises that are already questioning the solidity of the ship that makes up the so-called ‘Twenty-Seven’. According to the European Parliament website, which brings together all the provisional results of the member countries, the European People’s Party has achieved 191 representativesfar ahead of the 135 who have obtained the socialists. Behind, Renew Europe (83), the Conservative Group and European Reformists (71), the Identity and Democracy Group (53), the Greens (53), The Left (35) and the Not Registered (Four. Five).

Although these data are, for the moment, provisional and not definitive – waiting for the scrutiny to conclude in all countries -, they already put a key dilemma on the table of the European People’s Party: maintaining ties with social democrats, liberals and greens in search of promoting and redefining future progressive agreements from Brussels or getting even closer – as has already been happening for some time in different member states of the bloc. to ultraconservative, radical and even Nazi families. For now, Ursula von Der Leyen, the highest representative of the popular group in Europe, has already given hints about that correlation of forces with which she is studying restructuring the EU: “We will build a bastion against the extremes, of the left and the right.”

“Von der Leyen also needs the support of the liberals to insist and anchor that message that her party is the stabilizing force in Europe.”

But from words to actions, and more so in these junctures, there can be a whole world. Without going any further, the president of the European Commission has not hidden her complicity with far-rightists like Meloni; a position that she, however, has been correcting in recent days to the point of avoiding direct references to the Italian leader. Perhaps more attentive to polls than to affinities, she has also wanted to send clear winks to socialists and liberals. Precisely, based on that story of dialogue and coexistence that has permeated all types of negotiations and announcements in Brussels – and very far from the postulates of the PP in countries like Spain, where Feijóo has openly embraced the extreme right-, the popular Europeans want, in principle, to continue with the progressive coalition. The one that has governed for decades and that has allowed the European Union to evolve, grow and be a stable place.

But the growth of radicals cannot be ignored. It is the elephant in the room of the moderate right in Europe. If you get too close to the reactionary wave you can end up swallowed up. Thus an extreme juggling game occurs, almost impossible, considering the numbers. The European PP wins, but it is not enough to undertake reforms alone, nor is it enough for them to have the weakened support of the socialists. Von der Leyen also needs the support of the liberals to insist and anchor that message that his party is the stabilizing force in Europe. This being the case, the interesting thing is to know now how these alliances are going to be forged, which already seem complex due to the distribution of parliamentarians that the 9J has offered. Alliances and balances do not predict the best future for a Europe that is required to move and position itself firmly.

New postulates on the world stage

The result of the European polls marks a turning point regarding the dynamics of coexistence between the ‘Twenty-Seven’ and their policies in the last five years. Policies that have to do with progress regarding equality, with feminism and LGTBIQ+ rights as transversal drivers of social change that already suffer from rhetoric of hate, discrimination and rejection from ultra sectors with purely retrograde approaches; policies that have to do with solidarity identity of Europe, now fought by xenophobic groups that seek to reinforce immigration controls with hoaxes and misinformation.

Policies that have directly to do with our own existence, at risk before a climate crisis unstoppable but whose existence the reactionary wave denies, thus amplifying its devastating effects through isolationist strategies that prioritize economic interest over sustainability and global health. In general terms, civil society, social movements, democratic institutions and progressive forces are now in the crosshairs of an increasingly present and threatening ultra-right on vital issues related to the protection of the planet, human rights. human rights and the guarantees of equity and solidarity that the Union must demand.

Not only for the coexistence and development of the European bloc, characteristics that will define Europe’s role in a turbulent world scenario that requires immediate and drastic measures for its stability. The most immediate case, the brutal Israeli military offensive in Gaza. The genocide in Palestine has generated massive international rejection, at the same time opening a serious debate in the EU. The pressure to condemn Israel and take strong action, including the imposition of sanctions, has intensified in recent weeks, but has also sharply divided the members of the Union, testing the coherence of its foreign policy.

The same unitary foreign policy that served to the defense of Ukraine against the Russian invasion and that now reveals the fragility of the international order and the vulnerability of the bloc. A war that has led to an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe, has generated inflation and weakened the economy, and has also exacerbated internal divisions, with some countries more reluctant to take stronger measures against Russia. Precisely, the pressure from the Russian leader to interfere in European strategies, together with the renewed leadership of ‘Trumpism’ in the US and the reorganization of the great international powers, have led Europe to quietly rearm in the face of an absolute change of paradigm that benefits the postulates histrionics of the ultra and fascist movements. The red button is already there, it remains to be seen who is responsible for monitoring it and preventing anyone from pressing it.