donald trump has made – despite himself – history by becoming the first former president of the United States found guilty in a criminal trial. The jury considers him guilty on all 34 charges that he faced for falsifying accounting records to mask the purchase of the porn actress’s silence Stormy Daniels and prevent his supposed ‘affair’ from harming him in the race for the White House.

The Republican magnate has reacted to the verdict by declaring himself a “political prisoner”insisting that the trial has been “rigged” and ensuring that “the real verdict will be given on November 5 by the people of the United States” at the polls. But, Can Trump end up in jail? How does this guilty verdict affect your aspirations to return to the Oval Office?

Although the jury, seven men and five women, was in charge of deciding whether the former president was guilty or not, the responsibility of ruling sentence now falls on the judge Juan M. Merchan, a decision that will be announced next July 11.

Trump behind bars? Unlikely

Trump could be sentenced to house arrest or even prison, but it is the tycoon is unlikely to end up behind bars, since he does not have a criminal record. The maximum sentence provided for falsifying accounting records is up to four years in prisonbut it is rare for someone with no record and convicted solely of this crime to be sent to prison in New York.

It is more common, however, to receive for this a fine or probation. Even those convicted of this crime who are sentenced to prison generally only serve a year or even less and it is usually because they have also been convicted of other crimes, such as fraud, and this is not the case with Trump.

If he ultimately received a sentence beyond a fine, the judge would be more likely to impose a sentence. house arrest or curfew. As a former president, Trump also has the right to secret service for life and the logistics of keeping him protected in prison would be complicated. Waiting to hear the sentence, Trump will remain free and most likely he will appeal.

Yes, you can be a convict and president

And what about your aspirations of returning to the White House in the November presidential elections? Legally, even if he were imprisoned, Trump could campaign from prison and take over as president if he wins the election. In theory, could take possession from prisonon January 20, 2025, if he manages to beat Joe Biden.

And the fact is that the United States Constitution only imposes the requirements to be president as being at least 35 years old, having been born in the country and having lived there for 14 years.

Furthermore, if elected president, Trump could close the two federal cases who accuse him of trying reverse his electoral defeat of 2020 and take classified documents upon leaving the White House, although he would have no power to stop the case of electoral manipulation in the state of Georgia.

Support of the party and its followers

The date on which Judge Merchan’s sentence will be announced almost coincides with the Republican National Conventionwhich starts on July 15 and in which it foresees the official proclamation of Trump as candidate of the match, as all his rivals had retired.

After hearing the verdict, prominent figures of the Republican Party have already closed ranks with the magnate, who for the moment leads Biden in almost all polls. In fact, according to local media, the Republican Party’s donation page was blocked for about an hour after the verdict and many users indicated on social networks that they had sent money to Trump campaign.