The criminal trial against the former president of the United States donald trump (2017-2021), a historic process that could end this Thursday with the jury’s verdict, has been marked by the following issues:
1. What role did the affair with Stormy Daniels play?
Although the former porn actress came to testify in the courtroom and abounded in gruesome details, the sexual episode with Trump in 2006 (which he has always denied) was not the subject of this trial, and therefore the process did not decide whether that relationship took place or not. No. It simply served to cement his reputation as a womanizer.
2. The irregular payment to Stormy by Michael Cohen
The substance of the trial was to demonstrate that Trump asked his former lawyer and right-hand man Michael Cohen to pay $130,000 for her to hide the relationship and then falsify those payments so that they would not interfere in the 2016 elections.
3. Cohen’s controversial profile
Cohen has gone from being Trump’s right-hand man and a devoted admirer of his – and, as such, in charge of carrying out more or less covert tasks – to a confessed enemy, but those lurches, plus the fact that he admitted to having lied in a previous process, have greatly diminished its credibility and may affect the jury’s decision.
4. The twelve citizens on whom the verdict rests
These are seven men and five women chosen at random from the citizens of New York, and they represent a fairly diverse palette: according to the profiles leaked to the press – without their identities -, there are among them two lawyers, two businessmen, two engineers, a physical therapist, a speech therapist, a teacher, a retiree, a sales assistant at a fashion store and a banker.
5. Should he be convicted on all 34 counts?
No: the jury could find you guilty of some and not others, so you will have to make 34 separate decisions. But all these decisions must be made unanimously, according to the golden rule of juries.
6. What is the probability that he will be convicted?
Beyond the characteristics of this specific trial, the majority of criminal cases end in a conviction in the United States (75%), with a somewhat lower percentage in New York (72%).
7. Can a mistrial be declared? What happens then?
When a jury cannot reach a consensus verdict despite several deliberation sessions, the judge can declare a mistrial, but that happens in less than 10% of cases. If it so decides, the Prosecutor’s Office can request a new trial, but must present new evidence.
8. Will Trump go to prison if convicted?
The judge’s sentence, which will be announced within weeks, could translate into a period of probation up to a prison term of no more than 4 years. The New York Times points out that a prison sentence of less than one year could be served in a city prison, and would be served in a state prison if it is longer.
9. Does going to jail invalidate Trump as president?
No, because the Constitution says nothing about a candidate’s criminal record. The only conditions have to do with his place of birth (United States), his age (minimum of 35 years) and his residence (minimum of 14 years in US territory). But no one has been able to answer the question of whether Trump could serve as president from prison.
10. How many trials does Trump still have to go through?
Three: one for electoral interference in Georgia (pending appeal against the prosecutor), another for classified documents irregularly stored in Mar-a-Lago (no date) and another for the attack on the Capitol that depends on whether the Supreme Court grants the immunity to the former president.
Source: Gestion
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