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The IEA forecasts lower growth in crude oil demand for 2024

The IEA forecasts lower growth in crude oil demand for 2024

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this Wednesday revised downwards the increase in global demand for Petroleummainly due to the net reduction in Europe.

The new forecasts, included in the monthly report on the crude oil market published today, establish an increase in global demand of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, 140,000 less than a month ago, up to 103.2 million.

For 2025, the new forecast is for slightly greater growth, of 1.2 million barrels per day, up to 104.5 million.

The report confirms that, once again, the increase in oil demand is concentrated in emerging countries, especially China.

On the other hand, the demand in the countries of the OECD It will decrease in 2024 by 137,000 barrels, mainly due to the drop of 140,000 barrels in Europe.

The document draws attention to the fall in diesel consumption in Europe, which in 2024 will be 9.3% lower than in 2019 levels, due to lower industrial activity, the fall in sales of cars with that engine and the mild temperatures from last winter.

The supply of crude oil is expected to reach a record of 102.7 million barrels per day this year, and the trend continues for the increase to come mainly from non-OECD members or allies (such as the US, Canada or Brazil). due to the freezing of production in the members of the cartel.

The production of crude oil OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) fell by 90,000 barrels in April to 41.43 million barrels per day, mainly due to the fact that Russia began to apply the extraction cuts to which it had committed (-150,000 barrels per day in April, up to 9.3 million) .

Regarding prices, Brent rose one dollar per barrel in April to US$ 88, in its fourth consecutive month of increase, due to the continuation of the tension in Middle East, with the exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran.

Additionally, Yemen’s Houthis extended their attacks on merchant shipping beyond the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and Ukraine launched a series of attacks on Russian oil facilities.

However, the price of crude oil moderated at the end of April, when it reached US$93 per barrel, after it was confirmed that there would be no escalation in the Iran-Israel confrontation.

This trend continued in the first days of May, when the price fell by another US$ 4 per barrel, also due to doubts about the evolution of the global economy.

Source: Gestion

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