A drastic step by the EU. Poland “is unable”? A profound transformation awaits us [OPINIA]

The European Commission proposes that the EU set itself a goal. It should be another one – after the already established goal of reducing emissions by 55%. by 2030 – a step towards climate protection. We hear from both EU commissioners and the Polish government that this is only the “beginning of the discussion.”

Poland should change its approach. We are facing a profound transformation of the entire economy

At Tuesday’s press conference, the deputy climate ministers were very conservative and emphasized that for now “nothing is changing” for Poland. This is probably the result of the storm caused by (later corrected) support for such a goal. The fact that the authorities did not immediately declare a veto on the new goal – because that is probably what the PiS government would do – can be seen as a positive signal. However, this is obviously not enough. Poland should change its approach to climate policy and instead of being ineffectively outraged at it, start implementing this policy. And instead of just criticizing the new goals – start using the negotiations to support the Polish transformation.

There is no point in pretending that these proposals do not pose a huge challenge to us. To meet already agreed climate targets, we now need to cut emissions three times faster than in the last decade. We are facing a profound transformation of the entire economy. Changes in energy, transport and industry will cost hundreds of billions of euros (but the lack of these changes also carries huge, potentially greater costs). Changes will also be necessary at the individual level, such as choosing public transport or cycling more often instead of cars.

But is the fact that it will be difficult a reason to let go of the changes or block them? In the debate on the 2040 target, we will certainly hear many voices saying that it is a “threat to the economy” and that Poland is “not able” to reduce emissions so much. On the other hand, experts say that the target of 90 percent it’s even too low. The European branch of WWF assessed that the EC’s proposal does not reflect how urgently it is necessary to act in the face of the climate crisis. In turn, the European Climate Science Council proposed cutting emissions by 90-95% by 2040, so the Commission’s proposal is at the lower end of what scientists say.

Europe and Poland are facing a transformation. The key “sorting out the operation of emissions trading”

Let’s look at the specifics: Although the proposed 90% emissions cut by 2040 is formally a new goal, in fact, existing EU policies have already been heading in this direction. Just continuing current policies and regulations would reduce emissions by up to 88%. by 2040 (this results, among others, from the emission allowance trading system). So the target is 90%. it is, above all, a confirmation and regulation of what the EU has planned so far, rather than any drastic acceleration.

– The key changes will not concern an additional few percent of emission reductions, but the organization of the operation of emissions trading, as well as national goals and sector regulations. An important issue to be resolved will also be the division of financial resources for the transformation, says Aleksander Śniegocki from the Reform Institute. Funds – let us add – which Poland can negotiate to obtain.

Are we – as critics of climate policy say – at risk of “industrial collapse” and loss of competitiveness? It may be exactly the opposite. The world economy is moving towards moving away from fossil fuels and clean technologies are becoming more and more competitive in the world. In China it continues and

An ambitious climate policy gives the EU a strong argument in international negotiations at climate summits. We often hear from opponents of such a policy: “what about China, what about the USA?” But if we don’t cut our emissions quickly, we certainly won’t have the ability to demand the same from others. The deputy head of the European Commission, Maroš Šefčovič, speaking about the new goal, pointed out that there is fierce competition in the world regarding green technologies, often with strong support from states. Without such or more ambitious actions, Europe will simply fall behind.

It must be remembered that the target is 90%. will apply to the Union as a whole. So not every country will have to cut emissions by exactly this amount, and it can be expected that for Poland it will be less (however, this also depends on how the government negotiates it). – Our analysis from December suggests that reducing our emissions by approximately 65-70 percent. is not only possible, but also economically optimal, taking into account the development of clean technologies and rising prices of emission allowances, which will cover other sectors of the economy in the future – says Michał Smoleń from the Instrat Foundation.

Finally – as EU Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said – there is no doubt that actions to stop climate change are needed. The year 2023 was the hottest year on record, possibly since 100,000. years or more. And at the same time, we still have hotter years ahead of us, with more fires, floods and droughts, until our emissions drop to zero. On the other hand, the transformation presents us with a number of opportunities: to develop new technologies and industry, to live in a cleaner and healthier environment, and to ensure security without becoming dependent on the import of fossil fuels from outside Europe.

A slower transformation does not pay off at all

What if we decide that this shear rate is too high? The Commission commissioned an analysis of several scenarios, including one in which we reach only 78%. emission reductions. It turns out that the costs of such a slower transformation in 2050 will not differ significantly from the ambitious scenario.

There is a lot of talk about the costs of transformation. But abandoning it or cutting emissions too slowly will also cost us a lot. More greenhouse gases mean more heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, floods, failed crops, dying ecosystems, more disease and death. Also in Europe, as shown by the fires, heatwaves and floods of the last few years. And even the effects of the crisis in distant parts of the world will affect us indirectly: through rising food prices, the effects of tensions and conflicts, or demands for compensation from those countries that emit much less than us and are more affected by climate destabilization.

The government should – as announced by the Ministry of Climate – conduct its analyzes and consultations on how to implement such a goal in Poland and how it will affect our economy and society. Such consultations are not only something to “check off”, but also an opportunity to conduct a real dialogue with society, better understand concerns, but also convince people about the reasons and benefits of green policies. And a good basis for later negotiating at the EU forum such conditions and support that will allow us to implement it. Giving in to those who want Poland to stand firm in the EU’s climate policy and say a firm “no” to new goals will not bring us anything good. The previous government had already tried this “tactic”. The climate goals for 2030 and 2050 were adopted anyway, and due to conflicts with the EU and pulling the wool over our eyes in the country, it is only more difficult for us to carry out the transformation.