Omicron could be the dominant variant in the world in a couple of months

The omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 it could become dominant in the world in a matter of a couple of months and displace the delta variant, said Ramus Bech Hansen, CEO of Airifnity, a scientific information analysis company.

“Ómicron is going very fast and has become the dominant variant in some countries, especially South Africa, and we expect it to become dominant in the UK and other countries in the next week or months. It is not difficult to see a situation in which omicron will become dominant throughout the world in the next two months, given that it has already been detected in 82 countries, “he said.

In a press conference organized by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Producers, Bech Hasen said that it is still too early to seriously answer the question that everyone is asking about the efficacy of vaccines against this new variant, initially detected in the South Africa.

“It is too early to say and you have to be very cautious before drawing conclusions, although it would seem that vaccines work less well at least in symptomatic cases and there are studies from a couple of days ago that show a moderate reduction (in effectiveness) in cases of hospitalization and serious illness ”, he commented during the presentation of a series of data related to the pandemic in the last press event organized by the pharmaceutical consortium this year.

New vaccines against omicron?

The analyst pointed out that questions have also arisen about whether there will be a need for a new vaccine to protect against omicron and acknowledged that if this happens it would have a negative impact on the current production of vaccines against COVID-19, which has reached a rate of 1,400 million monthly doses.

The director of the Federation of Pharmaceuticals, Thomas Cueni, said that several companies that are part of this entity have informed him that the existing vaccines would be very effective against severe symptoms caused by omicron.

“There is no certainty that a new vaccine is needed because that would impact production capacity. Even if it is done very quickly, it would be better if it is not needed ”, he acknowledged.

Despite this, pharmaceutical companies have decided to go ahead and have started working on versions of new vaccines especially aimed at omicron. Bech Hasen estimated that in this case the preclinical studies would take three to four months and the clinical trials five months, which would imply that in September they could be ready.

In the case of modified vaccines, “in March there could be an authorization for use,” he indicated.

Will 2022 production depend on omicron?

The year 2021 will end with a production of 11,200 million vaccines against COVID-19 and according to current capabilities it will accelerate in 2022.

Airfinity data indicates that 8.67 billion doses will be produced in the first half of next year. However, Bech Hasen clarified that if half of the capacity is diverted to a modified omicron vaccine then production could fall to 5 billion doses, of which 20% would be directed to counteract the new variant.

Cueni said that it is very possible that new vaccines against COVID-19 will hit the market next year, which would significantly increase production to meet the third dose campaigns and demand from countries where the initial vaccination rate is still very low.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), some 40 countries have barely vaccinated 10% of their population and about a hundred have barely reached 40%.

Variety of vaccines investigated

There are about 41 vaccines that are in the third phase of clinical trials. Among the numerous investigations that continue to be done in this area are four vaccines that are being investigated for variants of the coronavirus, two that use routes of administration other than injection, thirteen that could be stored in a refrigerator and one that could even be stored at room temperature.

In addition, combination vaccines are being studied to protect against COVID, influenza and other respiratory diseases at the same time.